Complex Decision Making

Complex Decision Making

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On October 21, 2017, Seth Godin wrote the following:

Decision making, after the fact

Critics are eager to pick apart complex decisions made by others.

Prime Ministers, CEOs, even football coaches are apparently serially incompetent. If they had only listened to folks who knew precisely what they should have done, they would have been far better off.

Of course, these critics have a great deal of trouble making less-complex decisions in their own lives. They carry the wrong credit cards, buy the wrong stocks, invest in the wrong piece of real estate.

Some of them even have trouble deciding what to eat for dinner.

Complex decision making is a skill—it can be learned, and some people are significantly better at it than others. It involves instinct, without a doubt, but also the ability to gather information that seems irrelevant, to ignore information that seems urgent, to patiently consider not just the short term but the long term implications.

The loudest critics have poor track records in every one of these areas.

Mostly, making good decisions involves beginning with a commitment to make a decision. That’s the hard part. Choosing the best possible path is only possible after you’ve established that you’ve got the guts and the commitment to make a decision.

 

With the benefit of hindsight, none of us is ever wrong. We can, without fear of reprisal, predict what just happened 5 minutes ago.

In business, we can not afford to avoid the complex decisions. Leaving it to chance or following the crowd is about as solid of a strategy as allowing “hope” to be your business plan…

In the next breath, we must cut ourselves some slack; large and complex decisions are daunting. It can seem easier to do nothing than to tackle a complex decision and risk making the wrong choice. But, as Godin wrote, “making good decisions involves beginning with a commitment to make a decision. That’s the hard part.”

To Plan for Prosperity

“Paralysis by analysis” is an old adage that accurately and humorously describes our inability to make a decision (and act on it) because we never stop considering different options. We might feel like a failure, or inept, if we don’t get the decision right.

In reality, more opportunities are lost from perfect inaction than there are mistakes made from imperfect action.

Know the Signs

Know the Signs

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When you see a cow that is limping, you check her out to see what the ailment is. A prudent cowperson can quickly recognize foot-rot and will tend to the cow to make her well again.

When you see yellowing bottom leaves and/or thin, spindly plants in the canola crop, you know it is lacking nitrogen. If you see the signs in time, you can top dress nitrogen fertilizer onto your crop and see a positive benefit.

When we see a tire is low, we fill it.
When we see windows are dirty, we clean them.
When we find the level of fuel in storage is low, we order more fuel.
When cash flow is abundant, we spend it in ways we wouldn’t usually spend it.
Yet, when working capital is depleted, when cash flow is tight, or when profitability is dicey, we typically soldier on…doing what we’ve always done.

This makes no sense. The last two sentences above make no sense at all.

When the bank account is empty and the line of credit is nearly full, do you:
a) Apply for more credit, at your primary lender or elsewhere?
b) Evaluate your cash outflow to date and reexamine your plans for the rest of the year?

When working capital as slipped down so low it would barely cover the crop inputs loan, do you:
a) Analyze what caused the current situation?
b) Seek action to rectify your working capital position?
c) Both a) and b) ?

The case for “knowing the signs” is made by acknowledging the impact of each risk that is identified.

In the crop, the yellowing of canola leaves won’t spur any action if the risk to yield potential is not understood.  If the risk is understood, then an informed decision can be made to act or not act. If there is no effort put in to understanding the risk, then the decision to act or not act falls somewhere between apathy and laziness. Being ignorant to the specifics of the risk and its implications is no longer an excuse now that we have access to all of humankind’s knowledge in our pocket…

If you’re unaware of what are the signs of nitrogen deficiency in canola, if you’re unaware of what are the risks of foot-rot in your cattle herd, you are best to seek advice from an expert.

To Plan for Prosperity

The risks of maintaining insufficient working capital, and the risks from shortfalls in cash flow, are obvious to those of us who specialize in the financial side of business. We know the signs. We know what it takes to fix it. We know what should happen to ensure the situation isn’t repeated.

 

Systems

Systems

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Last week, we discussed the importance of adding value to your business. It hinges on knowledge that allows you to see where your business is creating value or eroding value. Without the knowledge to see where value is positive or negative, we risk making decisions that are emotional or even irrational, but always uninformed.

The key to adding value in your business comes from knowledge about the goings on in your business.

Lately, one of the more common challenges I’ve heard from clients is the challenge of accurately reconciling inventory. Yield monitors are an acceptable guess, but certainly they cannot be taken as gospel (I cannot rationalize how a machine running at high speed can provide an accurate measure of yield without stopping to calculate the mass of the grain…but I digress). Many operations have scales on the grain carts, and while this technology is much more reliable, it is useless if the information is not being recorded.  We wonder why the old adage rings true, “You never get as many bushels out of a bin as you’ve put in.” And we haven’t yet touched on inputs (seed, chemical, fertilizer) nor how you manage returns and the subsequent credits…

You never get as many bushels out of a bin as you’ve put in.

With all the technology available to accurately reconcile inventory, the reason it remains a challenge is that the system of recording and managing information is broken…if it exists at all!

Here is a small sample of the systems you need in your business:

  • Managing/tracking cash and working capital;
  • Managing/tracking inventory (production, inputs, parts, fuel, etc.)
  • Managing/tracking staff (hours, vacation, sick days, etc.)
  • Managing/tracking equipment (operating efficiency, service, repairs, etc.)
  • Controlling Unit Cost of Production
  • Creating Profit.

To Plan for Prosperity

You wouldn’t jump into your combine without confidence that all systems are in place and working properly; in fact, the manufacturers now have systems and sensors in place for almost everything making it so you can’t operate if something “isn’t right.”

There are far too many variables in your business and leaving any of them unmanaged puts your profit and cash flow at risk. With little in the way of guarantees that profit and cash flow will sufficiently meet expectations each year, isn’t it worth investing in the right systems to garner full control of your enterprise?

Adding Value

Adding Value

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To actually add value to your business you must have profit from operations. Every dollar of retained earnings that is left in your business increases the value of your business. Simple concept.

In agriculture, when someone says “adding value” we typically hear “value-added” which means something like processing, milling, refining, etc, etc, etc. Basically we infer that it is anything one or two steps up the value chain that isn’t the actual farming.

At this point, many ears close and minds drift off…

What I’m referring to today is what adds value in your business. It matters not whether your business is production, processing, or any product/service that supports your business, there are aspects where value is insufficient and it is hurting your bottom line.

What Doesn’t Add Value

  • Anything that does not provide an ROI (Return on Investment) above 1:1.
  • Anything that doesn’t provide a measurable and quantifiable improvement to efficiency (which can be translated to ROI.)
  • Anything that uses more cash that it provides.

Examples would be a brand new pickup truck, renting land that (at best) will only break-even, chasing yield to the detriment of gross margin.

What Does Add Value

  • Cash flow and expense management
  • Driving down Unit Cost of Production
  • Empowering your people

Examples would be building and preserving working capital (especially cash), understanding total farm costs relative to production, building a team of competent people who can replace you.

Defining Value

Maybe this is the place to start? How do you define value in your business? What do you see as providing value? For far too many farms, value is centered around land appreciation (a passive boost to equity) and new equipment (a major draw on cash.) Interesting how these two focus points are conflicting in how they affect a business’ financial position…

Does value comes from biggest yield, biggest equipment, biggest acreage base? Or does it come from profit, efficiency, and control?  I might be swimming against the current here, but my vote is the latter…

To Plan for Prosperity

Knowledge is key. Without knowledge, determining value becomes emotional, a guess, or a hunch… To understand value in your business requires an awareness, a level of knowledge, that does not come from gut feel. Your systems for managing the operation and all the financial decisions that go along with it are what will provide the knowledge to help you determine where you are adding value, where you can create value, and where you’re letting value be eroded away…

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It’s Never a Problem Until It’s a Problem

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The first time I heard the phrase “it’s never a problem until it’s a problem” was from Elaine Froese. She is a sought after speaker with farm families on the topics of succession and family dynamics. I recall chuckling at the statement because it is equal parts truth and ambiguity.

Elaine uses this phrase to describe issues among family members, those issues we let smolder without drawing attention to the fire in waiting, those situations that irk us but don’t get discussed because we don’t want to create conflict. The statement applies across the board.

Over my career as a business advisor, commercial lender, and bank branch manager, I’ve seen hundreds and hundreds of financial statements, and one thing is consistent: it’s never a problem until it’s a problem.

Between 2007 and 2013, generally speaking, cash flow was not a problem on western Canadian farms: yields were strong, commodity prices were robust, profits were made. Yet anyone who didn’t consider that those boom times wouldn’t last forever likely didn’t prepare for the effects of the cycle turning downward. Those are the businesses who were most likely to make long term decisions based on short term results. Now there is pressure on cash flow from issues such as excess moisture, or as in the case of 2017, drought. As such, cash flow, which wasn’t a problem in the past is now a problem for many.

“The future will always belong to those who see the possibilities before they become obvious to the typical producer.”

Danny Klinefelter

Danny Klinefelter is the recently retired ag economics professor at Texas A&M University, and the founder of TEPAP. His words, if heeded and practiced, will head off most problems before they become problems!

To Plan for Prosperity

Being a visionary isn’t exclusively tied to seeing the future, it also applies to pragmatically looking at the present. Connecting the dots between the present and an objective (meaning realistic and not overly-optimistic) outlook for the future will help us all identify problems before they become problems. Then comes the hard part: taking action.

top producer

Are You a Top Producer?

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Esteemed economist, Dr. David Kohl, is a fervent advocate of improving business decision making. In one of his recent speaking engagements, Dr. Kohl suggested that top producers can answer Yes to at least six of the following questions.

Top Producer Kohls questions

With only 10 questions on the slate, a positive response to only 6 of them would make you a top producer.
You’ll note that nowhere in those 10 questions will you find anything about actual production…

To Plan for Prosperity

If you are unable to answer YES to at least 6 of Dr. Kohl’s questions, then I suggest you do an internal audit on yourself and your business to determine why. If you are unsure about where to start in doing such an audit, or how to make the changes necessary to be able to answer Yes to 6 of 10 questions, then pick up the phone – I can help.

If six-out-of-ten makes you a top producer, imagine how strong your business would be if you hit 10/10…

CEO Labor

CEO Labor

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When we put autosteer in the tractor, it was my dad who said, “This isn’t farming if you’re not driving the tractor!”

It was a frustrated colleague of mine who said, “When driving tractors is more important than running the business, we’re near the end…”

My friend, Dean Robinson, published a great piece recently on how common it is in family businesses for the owner, the boss, the CEO to “regress” from being the “entrepreneur” back to being the” technician.” While this is common in family business, it seems like an expectation in farming. What I’m getting at is that successfully running a business involves thinking and acting like a CEO, while it is assumed that running a farm means getting dirty and operating equipment with the rest of the guys and gals in the operation. We all say that “farming is a business” but actions don’t appear to support that. Here is Dean’s column in its entirety; put the words in your own context to gauge how they apply to you.

Dean Robinson header

Dean Robinson photo

EDITION 67 – WEDNESDAY 3RD MAY, 2017
______________________________________________________________
TECHNICIAN – MANAGER – ENTREPRENEUR – PART 2

In last week’s edition of Growth, we talked about the evolution from Technician to Manager to Entrepreneur and how many family business owners are regressing from Entrepreneur back to Technician.

Here’s a reminder of the five adverse effects for your family business of this regression

  1. The client exposes themselves to risk if you are doing too much of the work yourself.
  2. You are not growing if you are not communicating often enough at a higher level.
  3. You put financial pressure on the business every time you hop into the rollercoaster of chasing work, finding too much of it, doing all of it, then running out of work again.
  4. Your bank is exposed to risk if the business is too centred around you and your involvement.
  5. Your team don’t see you as a leader, so might take instructions from you, but not direction and inspiration.

The five reasons I have given you above are motivation enough to have family business owners stop and think about why you are dragging yourself back into the role of the technician. However, it is not the biggest.

The number one reason why you should not do this is that I hear too many family business owners expressing unhappiness as to how their day to day life in business is panning out. They are fed up with the constant phone calls, the poor performing staff, the rushed deadlines, the lack of time to do any form of business planning. Yet, they turn up to their business every day and do the same old thing.

Here’s my message:

Stop it! Stop it right now!

You cannot grow a business that is profitable, valuable and sustainable in the longer term if you, the Entrepreneur, are operating at the Technician level.

If you keep falling back into the Technician’s role, you should seriously stop thinking about growing your business and, instead, lower your expectations as to what you want out of life and how your family business can fund that. You should revert back to being a Man (or Woman) in a Van and have a limited customer base that you focus on.

Now, if lowering your expectations is not on the cards, you need to think about what you need to do to ensure you not only put yourself back in the Entrepreneur’s role, but engage the three point racing harness and stay there.

There is an important element to locking yourself into the role of the Entrepreneur. I am yet to see a family business owner that can do this alone. As a family business owner, you need someone alongside you who:

  1. Challenges you.
  2. Forces you to think differently.
  3. Encourages you when you make progress.
  4. Pulls you back on track when you deviate.
  5. Supports you in your journey.

As the owner of a family business, you have complete control over the direction of your family business. However, because you are at the top of the tree in your organisation, most people don’t question you, the decisions you make or the direction you take. Which is why at times, the direction is forward, at others it is round and round, and at others still, it is backwards.

Having someone from outside your business perform this role creates:

  1. Accountability.
  2. A sense of reporting to a higher authority.
  3. A measure of progress.
  4. A degree of perspective.

Do you have someone in your family business life that is working alongside you so that you stay in the role of the Entrepreneur?

 

This Week’s Tip

“If you as the Entrepreneur, keep regressing back into the Technician role, your life will only get much, much busier as your business grows. More work for the business means more work for you personally. Which means less time for yourself and your family. What’s your choice?”

 

ABN 77 613 885 859
PO BOX 533, CAMDEN NSW 2570
(02) 4654 5000 – 0409 207 969
DEAN@DEANROBINSON.COM.AU
DEANROBINSON.COM.AU

 

Copyright © 2017 Dean Robinson Group PTY LTD, All rights reserved.

 

To Plan for Prosperity

The risks that Dean highlighted in his column should provide adequate reason to pause and reflect. Operating at a technician level (as labor) does not afford the CEO adequate opportunity to develop and execute his or her vision. Short term decisions get made from a technician’s perspective which have long term effects that are not given sufficient consideration because the CEO’s chair remains vacant…because the CEO is running equipment and not the business.

Maybe if farm CEOs spent more time in the office and less time in equipment their equipment costs wouldn’t be so high…?

 

Better is Better

Better is Better…

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Would you rather make $50/acre profit on 20,000 acres or $100/acre profit on 10,000 acres?

This is a question I ask any farmer who admits to pursuing aggressive expansion. As was aptly described in a recent edition of FCC’s AgriSuccess  in May 2017, journalist Kevin Hursh discusses cost effectiveness of farm expansion with Kristjan Hebert. Kristjan has been quoted in this commentary a number of times in the past because he is the first person I hear using the term “Better is better before bigger is better.” To his credit, he admits that it isn’t his phrase; he heard first heard it from someone else.

The question posed at the beginning of this piece is meant to evoke an admission of any business flaws that have crept in to the practices and decisions that drive aggressive expansion.

The point is acknowledge that for all the risk undertaken in the operations of any agricultural enterprise over the course of one year, the end result must recognize the effort involved and the risk taken. If you’re working harder and risking more, why would you accept less profit? True, the linear dollar profit is the same in this example, but the profit per unit (in this case, per acre) is half. Anyone who can prove that their whole farm costs, right to the paperclips, are also halved is welcome to step up and prove that bigger is in fact better. I’ll wait…

There are many advisors who have questioned why any commodity production business would want to rapidly expand before doing the best job they can on what they already have. The argument on what led to the mindset of expansion at all costs hasn’t been settled in over 20 years, and won’t be settled here today. But in the end, we can do better, we must do better, because now we know better.

And the words are true: Better IS Better…

To Plan for Prosperity

This week’s piece is purposefully pithy. It is meant to drive awareness of the “Costs and Effects™” of the decisions made in our businesses. Every choice we make has a consequence, and to truly “be better,” we must evaluate each business decision on its merit, not how it makes us feel.

While bigger can sometimes be better, it’s guaranteed that better is always better.

 

Strategy

Strategy

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In the last two issues through prose, we’ve contrasted two differing approaches to managing growth opportunities in a farm operation. “Fictional Fred” shot from the hip, taking more of a “ready, fire, aim” approach to business. That style has a time and place, and even if it isn’t your core modus operandi, there may be situations where you need to act fast to take advantage of an opportunity before it’s gone. In most businesses, however, a gunslinger approach such as this does not make for a long term sustainable enterprise.

By contrast, “Imaginary Harry” ran his business with more precision. He understood that the best way to improve profitability in a commodity production business was to stringently manage all that he could control, recognizing that there is so much that cannot be controlled.

Fred wanted to get bigger, but he overlooked being better. Harry wanted to get bigger only if it made him better.
Harry has a defined strategy that he is acting on, and he is making more money because of it.
Fred’s strategy, if he even has one, is loosely put together, and like that of a sweater of similar description, would come apart completely at the first snag.

Define Your Strategy

A business operating without a strategy is eventually caught up in “the spin-cycle.” Like a clothes washing machine, around and ’round it goes: daily tasks and routines repeated each day, weekly repeated each week, monthly repeated each month, yearly repeated each year. As days, weeks, months, and years go by, without direction and strategy the time marches on and business results fail to meet expectations. Then who is to blame? Let the finger pointing begin!

If your strategy is to be the biggest, then declare it. Make it your success criteria.
If your strategy is to be the least indebted, then declare it. Make it your success criteria.
If your strategy is to continue the family legacy and take over the family business then declare it. Make is your success criteria.

To Plan for Prosperity

The point is not to tell you that your strategy is right or wrong; the point is to HAVE a strategy.
Having no strategy is like shooting targets with a shotgun: you’ll hit something, but it might not be what you wanted.

passion

Passion

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“A business without passion is merely a job.

A passion without business is merely a dream.

Making a business of your passion is a bountiful success.”

This morning I was in an email conversation about “mastering your craft” with a fellow business advisor, an incredibly intelligent woman who also happens to be one of my best friends. It reminded me about one of the points I would make during my many speaking engagements over this past winter: sometimes passion is not enough.

We’ve heard it and read it before. It falls out of the mouths of motivational speakers everywhere. It is seen regularly on daytime talk shows, infomercials, and of course, the interweb. “Follow your dreams…harness your passion…” What if passion is not enough?

There are many who venture into “business” who are either ignorant or willfully blind of the financial and management side of “business.” Often they believe that their skill and their passion are all that is necessary to be successful in business. As Michael Gerber wrote in The E-Myth, “The Fatal Assumption is: ‘if you understand the technical work of a business, you understand the business that does the technical work.’ And the reason it’s fatal is that it just isn’t true. In fact it’s the root cause of most small business failures.”

Just because you’re a great cook does not mean you should open a restaurant.
Just because you’re a great welder does not mean you should start a manufacturing company.

This is not to discount the importance of mastering your craft. Realizing on your passion is a gift too few of us ever get to realize. BUT…if you intend to make your passion into a business, you need to know BUSINESS!

I don’t know anyone anywhere whose passion is “cash flow,” but it is an integral part of business that must be intimately known, or the gap from startup to liquidation could by mighty small.

To Plan for Prosperity

During many of my speaking engagements this past winter, I’ve suggested that a simplified strategy can be 1) Find what you are passionate about, and 2) Determine if you can make money doing it. Passion on its own is not enough.

There is a difference between “business owners” and “people who own businesses.” The former are entrepreneurs; the latter have bought themselves a job. Despite “The Entrepreneurial Myth” as Gerber defined it, all hope is not lost for those who have fallen into it. The people who will be most successful are those who can admit they need help in areas where their passion does not lie.

“Do what you do best, and get help for the rest.™”