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borrowing-binge

Borrowing Binge: At The Farm and Beyond

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Last week, I was emailed an article by Rob Carrick of The Globe and Mail. Carrick writes about Canada’s borrowing binge; no not our federal government deficit and growing debt, but Canada’s household debt. Let’s see how it applies not only to household debt, but farm debt.
**NOTE: Carrick’s article is below in italics, with my comments inserted in bold.

“It’s getting harder to see anything but a messy ending for Canada’s household debt binge.

This isn’t the beginning of a lecture on reducing your borrowing. It’s more a resigned observation of human behaviour. You can warn people to act now to avoid a potentially bad outcome in the future, but they’re not likely to do anything unless they see trouble dead ahead.

The second quarter of 2016 was a vintage moment in debt accumulation. Incomes rose, as Statistics Canada puts it, “a weaker-than-normal” 0.5 per cent, while household debt growth clocked in at 2 per cent. This is the Canadian way – keep debt levels growing ahead of gains in income.

On two counts, this is bad personal finance. Your household spending flexibility is negatively affected in the short term (you have less money to save, for example), and you’re more vulnerable to financial shocks ahead, such as rising interest rates or an economic decline that kills jobs. Clearly, most people aren’t worried about these risks.”

What risks make you worried about your debt load? Can you control them (ie. fusarium, sclerotinia, excess moisture, interest rates, commodity prices?)

“The explanation starts with the fact that we live in a world in which conditions for borrowing are as good as they can ever be. Interest rates are low and the economy, while tepid, is producing enough jobs to prevent unemployment from becoming a big issue.

In the field of behavioural finance, there’s a term called “recency bias” that describes what’s happening here. People are looking at recent events and projecting them into the future indefinitely. So far, it’s working. We’ve had low rates and a slow-moving but stable economic for years now, and there’s no sign of imminent change.”

“Recency bias” describes the not so distant thinking that canola wouldn’t go below $10/bu, meaning that “$10 was the new floor” (circa 2012.) There were many other behaviors and attitudes that came with that thinking. How quickly forgotten are the years of poor quality and inconsistent yields…

“Under these conditions, there’s no reason to heed the repeated warnings from the Bank of Canada, economists, finance ministers, credit counsellors and personal-finance columnists about the dangers of taking on more debt. And so, the ratio of household debt to disposable income hit a record 167.6 per cent in the second quarter, up from 149.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2008.”

Is there a reason to heed the warnings from ag economists, management advisors, and creditors about the dangers of taking on more debt….? Depends how much debt you currently carry. 

“Recent warnings about debt levels give us an idea of what could happen if there are any economic shocks ahead. The credit-monitoring firm TransUnion said earlier this week that more than 700,000 people would be financially stressed if rates went up by a puny quarter of a percentage point, and as many as one million would be affected if rates went up by a full point.

The Canadian Payroll Association recently surveyed 5,600 people and almost 48 per cent of them said it would be tough to meet their financial obligations if their paycheque was delayed even by a week. Almost one-quarter doubted they could come up with $2,000 for an emergency expense in the next month.

These reports highlight some of the risks of the borrowing binge we’ve been on for the past several years, but not all. Decades down the road, we may find that people didn’t save enough for retirement in the 2010s because they were so burdened by debt. Student debt levels might rise in the future because parents weren’t able to help with tuition costs.”

An interest rate sensitivity test would answer this question for your particular operation. But more important that interest rates, which in reality are unlikely to experience any significant increase in the short-medium term, is income volatility. The debt payments won’t change, but a farm’s ability to make those payment will. If the debt payments can only cash-flow when yields and price are at high points, there is trouble ahead.

“That second-quarter data from Statscan show clearly how deaf people are to warnings about the dangers of debt. In the worst three-month period since the recession, economic output fell by an annualized rate of 1.6 per cent.

The reaction of employers to this economic dip can be seen in the fact that income growth was weaker than normal in the second quarter. Consumers barely flinched, though. They’re impervious not only to warnings about the dangers of high debt levels, but also to periodic bouts of economic volatility like we saw in the second quarter. Only a big shock will get their attention.

There’s no point trying to forecast when a shock will happen, but what we do know for sure is that the financial and economic conditions of today will change. We remain in an adjustment phase following the financial crisis and recession late in the past decade and it’s far from clear what the new normal will be.

Things could get better for the economy, or they’ll get worse and jobs will be vulnerable. Either way, people are going to have to make stressful adjustments that they could have avoided by reducing debt today. This could get messy.”

From the Home Quarter

It has been well documented that farm debt in Canada is high. In the next breath, there is all kinds of spin added to the argument such as stating current debt in 1982 dollars so as to compare to the carnage that was beginning 34 years ago. Not to try to deflate the validity of constant dollar comparisons, but the cold hard reality is that existing debts, today’s liabilities, need to be paid back. Compare the situations all we like, describe how “things are different now;” either way, no matter how you slice it, current farm incomes need to pay present day debts.

So when I hear of lentil yields often coming in at half of expectation, when I hear of wheat and durum crops again decimated by fusarium, when I hear of malt barley crops grading as feed because of all the rain, I can only hope that those farms who experience such production results this year are not over-leveraged. Is this a hint of “the big shock” Carrick wrote about, as it would apply to agriculture? Or is that big shock something already on the radar like China slamming the door on Canadian canola that doesn’t meet spec?

The borrowing binge at the consumer level, as Rob Carrick wrote about, could have drastic implications on the Canadian economy; his words also apply to agriculture. We could be in for a rough ride, “this could get messy” as Carrick wrote.

Sage words from a 30+ year farm advisor: “Take your worst net income over the last 10 years and measure it against today’s debts. How do you feel?”

If you don’t feel good from that experiment, please call me or email for strategies to help ease the discomfort.

Crop Failure

Critical State – Crop Failure

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Do you have the financial strength to survive a crop failure?

Considering that most farmers are still primarily production focused, there is likely no greater catastrophe in their mind than a crop failure. With Mother Nature offering challenging conditions every year (even 2013 which had a strong majority of farmers enjoying “the perfect growing season,” there were still many areas that faced insurmountable weather challenges) one would think that prudent risk management would involve many of the following strategies, each with a prescribed weight based on each farm’s specific need.

Provincial crop insurances, Agri-Stability, private revenue insurance, hail insurance, etc. are the most popular risk management tools used by farmers today. Most farms use one of those, or a combination of several. Each farm’s weighting of the various programs will be as unique as each farm. However, many farms use none of these risk management tools. They will each have their own rationale for why. Some are so well capitalized that they can self-insure, take the financial hit from poor production and keep on rolling. Others do not understand how the programs work, and because of their ignorance, they choose not to take part. In the middle is the majority, broken into two parts: one that clearly understands the nuances of each program, and utilizes it to the fullest, most prudent extent (which might mean not using them at all); the second does not bother to gain such understanding and simply does what’s always been done year after year.

There are four distinct factions described above in how many farmers approach risk management. Which one do you fit into?

  1. Well Capitalized, avoids using the programs: you have abundant savings and working capital to withstand more than one year of zero, or near zero, gross revenues and choose to eliminate the premium costs for risk management programs.
  2. Lacking full comprehension of programs, avoids using the programs: you feel that they are too complicated, too expensive, and never pay you.
  3. Intimate understanding of the programs, uses (or does not use) the programs to the best net benefit to your farm: you know the ins and outs of the program(s) better than anyone who answers phones at the respective help desks. You carefully weigh premiums, coverages, and benefits with precision so that all match beautifully with your production practices. This may include not using the programs because the cost-benefit is not sufficient.
  4. Not bothered to learn about program nuances, uses (or does not use) the programs because “that’s what we’ve always done”: you don’t have time to read through the acres of lingo and jargon that are provided to you, so you just blindly take the same coverage you’ve always taken, or not taken any coverage at all. “Just go with what we did last year!”

Of course, these groupings ignore the geographic issues in that, for example, some farms span so many miles that a hail storm is incredibly unlikely to affect the entire farm, some farms are so large that program premiums can represent a small fortune, and some farms (large acres or not) are in such tight proximity that weather risk cannot be “spread out.”

Direct Questions

Which category above do you fall into? If it is #2 or #4, what is your risk management approach?

Do you prefer reliance on risk management programs over building strong working capital? Why?

Production is critically important. How do you manage the risk of crop failure?

From the Home Quarter

Farming is risky business, and the risk of losing a crop can bring a farm to the point of Critical State. How we manage the risks, and in this discussion, the risks pertaining to crop failure deserve attention that is paramount. What certainly gets most of the attention when it comes to managing the risk of a crop failure is inputs. And while there is no arguing the importance of doing all you can to produce the highest yield and best quality crops, there is more to the equation. Much of what will bring success or failure to your efforts in production is out of your hands.

The only way to get off the train of risk management programs (and cash advances, and trade credit, and operating credit) is to build abundant working capital.

You cannot shrink your way to greatness and you cannot spend your way to prosperity.

Overspending

Critical State – Overspending

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Cash in the bank is a good thing. Spending it because it is there is the scourge to many farm’s financial strength.

Years ago, when I was still in banking, I was doing what can be argued young bankers should, or should not, do…I was listening intently to some well tenured, long-in-the-tooth bankers. It was good because of the insights they brought. It was not good because of the cynicism they had. One cynical comment in particular stayed with me; it was when that grizzled old banker said, “Farmers hate having money in the bank…as soon as it’s there, they go spend it!”

Maybe that comment showed his lack of insight into how a farm business is run. Maybe he was fairly accurate in his conjecture in how it relates to the psychology and mindset of a farmer. Although, I believe that “hate” is the incorrect descriptor for how farmers really feel about cash.

You may recall reading Spending Less is More Valuable Than Earning More in this commentary a few months ago. I regularly read comments in ag publications and on Twitter about how “farmers are good at making money, but trying to keep some is the hard part.” Not for everyone…

Investing in your business is something not to be taken lightly. Every year, month, week, and day, farmers battle with the decisions of what to grow, how to fertilize it, what to spray, when to spray it, etc. With almost the same frequency, many farmers are also looking at the tools to get the job done (ie. farm equipment.) “Newer, bigger, better” seems to be the name of the game when it comes to equipment. And less frequently, farmers consider expanding the land base. Whether to rent or to purchase is but one of the questions pertaining to land.

It is my belief that the issue of overspending would not be an issue if more discipline was used in ensuring that all expenditures met an ROI (Return on Investment) threshold. I’ve learned about the following instances in the last year that clearly show a lack of understanding the concept of ROI:

  • disastrous chickpea crops despite as many as 6 fungicide applications (at $15-$20 each, that’s an extra $90-$120/ac in inputs)
  • $90/ac rent paid on 640 acres that has only 420 acres available in the entire section due to excess moisture (so he’s actually paying $137 per cultivated acre)
  • inability to make loan payments because the operating line of credit is maxed out.

I have gone on record many times in my prognostication that credit, specifically operating credit, will be difficult to maintain (and likely impossible to get) in the not-too-distant future. Those operations that do not run on cash, therefore relying on operating credit, will face insurmountable hardship when credit policy changes.

Control your own destiny:

  1. Build working capital reserves, specifically CASH;
  2. Discontinue relying on operating and trade credit to cash flow your farm;
  3. Sell your production when it meets your profit expectations instead of when you need to make your payments (cash in the bank allows you to do this!)

Direct Questions

How would you describe the rationale employed when determining how to deploy resources, specifically cash?

As a percentage of your annual cash costs, what is your minimum cash balance to keep on hand?

From the Home Quarter

In a business within an industry that is renown to have multiple cash and cash flow challenges, it is not unusual to learn that adequate (or abundant) cash on hand is not common. And so when cash is available, the need (or temptation) to upgrade this or replace that can be too much to handle. Disciplined decision making, backed by a sound strategy, is often the difference between successful, highly profitable farmers and surviving, occasionally profitable farmers. Which would you rather be?

For guidance, support, or butt-kicking in developing your strategy, and the discipline to stick to it, please call or email my office.

Reinvent yourself _whats next

Reinventing

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The Olympics have now come and gone. The excitement and the drama, the anxiety and the relief, have all subsided. Real life makes its triumphant return.

Imagine for a moment what “real life” will now be like for young Penny Oleksiak. At the tender age of 16, she earned a spot on Canada’s Olympic team. In her first Olympics (please note that…her FIRST Olympics) not only did she perform well, she medalled. Not only did she medal, she won 4 medals: 1 gold, 1 silver, and 2 bronze. Now unofficially dubbed as Canada’s “Best-Ever Summer Olympian,” where does she go from here?

The pressure to be better 4 years from now at the next Olympics will no doubt be tremendous. Will she be expected to win 6 medals? All golds? What?

Imagine for a moment what “real life” is like for a phenom like Connor McDavid. At 19, he’s entering his sophomore season and is no longer a rookie pro-hockey player. According to a Google search, he’ll earn $832,500 US this upcoming season (approximately $1,071,000 Cdn at current exchange rates.) He lives life under a microscope, in the spotlight, and by being a part of the Edmonton Oilers, he is certainly a big fish in a small pond. (Enough metaphors for you?)

The pressure to be better this season, and each season going forward will no doubt be tremendous. Will he be expected to score 30 goals? 40 goals? Eclipse Gretzky’s records? What?

These are examples of two exemplary young Canadians who have worked harder, and overcome more challenges, than almost everyone in order to achieve what they have.
What happens if they can’t follow up to their early success? What if the pressure gets to them? What if they fail to meet expectations? Fear is an incredible demotivator…

Neither of these 2 young athletes will disappoint. Even if their future success is pale in comparison to what they have already achieved to date, no one can take away what they have accomplished before 20 years of age. So what if they have long and successful careers? No matter how you slice it, they will be ready to retire in the next 15-20 years…old hags in their mid-30’s.

While it is easy for us as “regular people” to glorify the thought of retiring from a professional sports career before age 40, living the good life for the rest of our days, it’s just not that easy, nor is it real. While physically my prime is behind me, now in my 40’s I have more to offer, more to contribute, and can make bigger and better change in the world than I could have as a 20-something.  Mine has been an evolution. But for young athletes, it’s a reinvention.

What does someone who was at the peak of their career, and earning power, in their 20’s do once they’ve retired in the 30’s or 40’s? How does one reinvent oneself when one was once at the top of the world? It’s got to be awfully bloody difficult to overcome the mental and emotional hurdles that threaten the efforts of these people to reinvent themselves, to find new purpose, to contribute, to make a difference…

I certainly do not envy them…

You, as a business owner, will hopefully have the opportunity to reinvent yourself. That is to mean that you’ve lived long enough to be able to enjoy retirement! It is not something to fear and loathe, it is something to celebrate and enjoy! Do not bemoan living long; it beats the alternative.

Direct Questions

Life will change, and your ability to adapt is your key to success. How are you planning to reinvent yourself for when the time comes? Who are you looking to for help?

From the Home Quarter

If you’re a farmer getting on in years, and if farming is all you’ve done, then you are likely facing a reinvention in the future. But as a farmer with decades of tenure, at least you are not reinventing yourself during a possible mid-life crisis, like a young athlete who was once on top of the world…

 

Redmans

Vision (by guest contributor, Dean Robinson)

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Preface:

The following is provided by a guest contributor, Dean Robinson. Dean is a principal in the firm Redmans, a family business advisory practice in New South Wales, Australia. Dean and I are part of the same community of professionals and became instant friends at a recent event. Dean’s recent blog post, Vision, hits home as it relates to strategy and execution in family business. I hope you enjoy!

– Kim

=====================================================================================================================================

One of my big criticisms around modern Australian politics is that we no don’t have a clear vision for where Australia is heading as a country. For me, the Hawke, Keating and Howard Governments were all clear on vision. Each government set a future, then trod down the path towards it. Yes, there was some anguish. At times, decisions were made that were unpopular. However, in each of those governments, we had Prime Ministers who saw the bigger picture and understood there would be hiccups along the way. In my opinion, the years since 2007 have been devoid of the big vision.

Which leads me to family business. Unfortunately, too many of them are also unclear on their vision. They unlock the doors each day, take all comers, deal with issues like the Rural Fire Service deals with a bushfire outbreak, then lock it all up at the end of the day, ready to do it all again tomorrow.
In many respects, you can boil this down to three problems:

  1. Lack of a clear business strategy; or,
  2. If there is a business strategy, lack of implementation of it; or,
  3. If there is a business strategy, and it has been implemented, a lack of commitment to it.

A business that lacks a strategy doesn’t know where it is going, an obvious statement I know. However, the number of family businesses that lack a clear and documented business strategy is surprisingly high. This means they’re running all over the place, usually being all things to all people and creating stress for themselves in the process.
If a family business has developed a business strategy, the place where it falls over the most is in the implementation phase. Any client we have worked with on the development of a strategy that says they don’t need our help to implement it has always failed to implement. Without exception. Once the strategy planning day is done, they go back to what they’ve always done, which is generally be reactive. The only thing that works for implementation is accountability. Plenty of school children would not do their homework if they didn’t have to hand it in the next day. The same applies for family business owners.
Finally, if there is a strategy and it has been implemented, any lack of commitment to it from anyone in the management team can de-rail it. Everyone needs to be on board with the direction. If your business strategy is to produce widgets, you gear your factory up to produce more widgets, then find that you’re really not that interested in the widget market after all, you’ve just blown significant resources in the business and potentially taken resources away from parts of the business that work.
My questions to you are:

  1. Do you have a clear strategy for your family business that you can articulate succinctly and with passion?
  2. If you have a strategy, what is your process for implementing it and who is holding you accountable?
  3. If you have a strategy and have implemented it, is anyone undermining the strategy? If so, what are you doing to bring them to account.

This Week’s Tip

Lack of Strategy = lack of direction.
Lack of Direction = business anarchy.
Anarchy – a state of disorder due to absence of non-recognition of authority or other controlling systems (Oxford Dictionary.)

 

 

Goals and Strategy _corn rows

Goals and Strategy

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Never trade what you want most for what you want at the moment. It only leads to failure.

Those are profound words. While “failure” is not absolute, I believe in this perspective failure means “failure to reach your goal.”

What is your goal in business? What are you working for? Some business-people in primary production agriculture have defined their goals: one aggressive young farmer I know has made it clear that his goal is “to leave the land for the next generation in better condition then when he got it.” His desire for a newer tractor or more land never trumps his goal, and therefore his decisions reflect his goal.

I often speak to farmers who describe their goals as ” reducing debt” and “improving profitability” yet they trade those goals, whether consciously or unconsciously, for what they want in the moment (typically additional equipment)…which usually increases debt and can often have an adverse effect on short term profitability.

Does that mean the farm will fail? Does that mean the farmer is a failure? No. It means that there is failure is reaching the goal of reduced debt and increased profitability.

This leads me to circle back; ” What is your goal in business? What are you working for?”

We touched on this a few weeks back in Growing Farm Profits Weekly – Eat to Live or Live to Eat. It is no one’s place to tell you your goals are wrong. Just be honest with yourself about what’s really important, and expects results accordingly.

I work with farmers who acknowledge the need to have strong business goals that align with their personal goals. All of them are grateful to have some help to clear the air when making decisions and to take the emotion out of the equation. I have done the same in my own business: I have an advisor who I’ve hired to help me wade through the issues, and the emotional roadblocks, that could potentially affect my business.

Here are the Growing Farm Profits™ 3 Keys to Reaching Your Goals:

  1. Start with with a goal in mind, and set tactics later. Starting with tactics enters into a never-ending cycle.
  2. Plan for adversity, strategize how to adjust, and respond as required.
  3. Stay on course; get any and all help you need to keep from straying off the chosen path.

Direct Questions

What information do you need to allow you to clarify your business and personal goals? Who is helping you get it and sort through it?

Who do you lean on to help strategize when mapping your business and personal goals?

How do you manage the desire to trade what you want most for what you want in the moment?

From the Home Quarter

It is not unusual for farmers to get caught in the cycle of “head down, shoulder to the plough, get the work done, plant the crop – harvest the crop – sell the crop – repeat.” And after 20-odd years of doing just that, and finally looking up, most find that they’ve built something they never expected or planned for. Now facing the thought of planning for life after farming, many are asking “What now?”

Beginning with an end goal in mind is a critical key to successfully reaching that goal. Stay on course, and do not trade what is wanted most for what is wanted now.

family succession

Critical State – Lack of a Succession Plan

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I have been incredibly impressed with the service and quality of work at Queen City Glass. I stumbled onto them a number of years ago when I got a stone chip on my truck’s windshield right at the the beginning of a November cold snap. I knew that tiny chip would spider-web in a big way the first time I cranked on the windshield defroster. Going to the glass shop I had frequented up to that point and being told to come back in 3 days or so, I was about to accept the fate of my front glass when I drove by Queen City Glass. With nothing to lose, I whipped in to see if they could help me out.

They took me right in without an appointment and did a great job of repairing my windshield. I didn’t have glass coverage at that time so the fee would be coming out of my wallet. Not knowing what to expect, having never paid for a windshield repair before, I was happy with what they took from me.

While I was waiting for the work to be done, I learned that they do all kinds of glass, almost anything that one might custom order. The guys in the back were sharing stories of building display cases for jewelry stores and fighting with 10′ high panes for shopping mall store fronts. They admitted to doing a lot of work for antique cars, as well as farm equipment.

Coming back from a recent client meeting, my windshield got hit by a rock which left a chip. Almost as big as a quarter right away, I knew I had to get the damage repaired soon or it would be too big to fix. I pulled over on the highway at about 2:20 pm and called Queen City Glass. They told me if I could get there by 3, they’d have me done in time to get to my 4pm obligation. One of the owners was doing the work on my truck. After he shared with me the story of the company’s ownership,how his father acquired the business in the 1960s and has since passed it down to him and his sister, I asked him what was his succession plan. He replied, “Freedom 85, man!” I clarified that I didn’t mean his retirement plan, but the plan for the future of the business when he and his sister no longer want to work it (sometime after he turns 85 as per his declaration.) He admitted that there is no interest from the 3rd generation to own and operate the business and that if it couldn’t be sold, it would probably close.

As I stood in that shop and considered all the amazing glass work that would have been done there over the years, including a turn-of-the-20th-century hand carved piece of furniture in which they were installing a custom mirrored back that very day, I realized what a shame it would be to not have this business carry on what is most likely a storied legacy. As the late great George Jones once sang, “Who’s gonna fill their shoes?”

Direct Questions

Family business is the backbone of Canada’s economy, and farms are often the most enduring of all family businesses. What is your plan to ensure the progression of your farm carries on?

With family or without, you have opportunity to transition your business without selling everything. What options do you have beyond immediate family?

Whose gonna fill YOUR shoes?

From The Home Quarter

Queen City Glass will be at the point of critical state when one or both of its current owners decide they’ve had enough work, and want to retire. I would argue they are at the point of critical state right now, if not very close to it. With no succeeding generation currently involved in the business, should either of the 2 owners become disabled or killed, the business would likely face an immediate upheaval and could be forced into a final closure. Any family business in any industry without a succession plan faces a similar potential fate; none are immune. If you are the beneficiary of a proud family legacy, what are you doing to ensure that legacy continues?

 

 

toe the line of critical state

Critical State

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Critical State…it’s a subjective term, but is often defined in science literature as “the point at which something triggers a change in the basic nature or character of the object or group.” To paraphrase: something can be referred to as being in a critical state when at the point of significant change.

How many triggers of change do you, your family, and your business face each day, each month, and each year that could cause significant change? How many ways are you riding on or near the line of a “critical state?”

While there is little doubt that the list could be far longer, here are ten of the most important circumstances (many of which are ignored) that could put you at, or beyond, a critical state:

  1. Disability or Loss of Life: whether it be one of the major stakeholders in your business, a member of your family, or one of your employees, this is often the most catastrophic change.
  2. Lack of a Succession Plan: see point #1 above.
  3. Inability to Communicate: with family, partners, employees, vendors, etc.
    Does any more need to be said on this one?
  4. Debts Get Called: sometimes lenders make adjustments to their portfolio to manage their risk. If your debts get called, how do things change for your business?
  5. Overspending: cash in the bank is a good thing. Spending it because it is there is the scourge to many farms’ financial strength. Do you believe cash is king?
  6. Crop Failure: do you have the financial strength to survive a crop failure?
  7. Timing: trying to time the commodity markets is almost like trying to pick winning lottery numbers; both are nearly impossible. Regarding major purchases, there clearly is a right time and a wrong time to be taking on more debt, investing in more or upgraded assets, expanding, etc.
  8. Inaction: not monitoring bins, too cold to haul grain, we’re at the lake (can’t scout for bugs/disease,) etc. Poor excuses that can quickly create a critical state.
  9. Maintaining Inadequate Working Capital: believe it or not, but the chronic dependence on operating credit from lenders and vendors leaves a farm at the precipice of a critical state. Operating credit should not be counted on year over year. What if it isn’t there when you needed it most?
  10. Unwilling to change and adapt: “We’ve always done it this way,” are the 6 most deadly words in business.

Direct Questions

How many of the 10 points above might apply to your farm?

How would you gauge your ability to critically analyze your own business relative to the 10 points above?

What is your strategy to remain “well back” of the line that crosses over into critical state?

From the Home Quarter

In the battle against weather, insects, disease, market prices, etc, it is easy to get caught in a routine. When we succeed at managing through the day to day, the “extra” stuff, the “other” issues seem like they can wait. “It’ll never happen to me” are some of the most famous last words.

Too often, we operate at the very brink of critical state. Too often, we get away with it, which allows to be become “something we’ve always done.” So I’m left to ask,”Isn’t it better to avoid a crisis than deal with one?”

 

cash is not king

Cash Isn’t King

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I think this phrase has gained such popularity because of alliteration. The hard “c” in cash just rolls with the word “king.”

Let me emphatically disagree with the ideology that cash is king.

One could argue that the king rules all, answers to no one, and has absolute power. While I’m sure that is what the king would have everyone believe, the truth is that kings have always been influenced by the likes of his queen, his advisors, other diplomats, etc. Is he, then, truly the top, unflappable, incontestable?

Since we live in a democracy and are no longer ruled by a king or queen, when I hear such terms I think of cards. The card games I enjoy the most are 3-Spot (also known as Kaiser) and Poker. In both games, the king is soundly trounced by one card that is even greater.

Yes, I’m saying it.

Cash is not King.

It’s the ACE!

If cash is king, then that means that something else is the Ace, something else is more important than cash. This is simply not so.

Cash is the ace, the pinnacle, the life blood of your farm.

Imagine how the decisions would be different, the decisions that are made every day and every year on your farm, imagine how they would be different if you had an abundance of cash:

  • Instead of gambling on trying to time the commodity market high, you could sell your production whenever was most convenient and/or at an appropriate profit point.
  • You would cease the need for operating credit, vendor credit, or cash advances.
  • “Cash management” would no longer be juggling between various creditors and hoping you can deliver grain in time to make payments, but instead it would be paying bills on time (ahead of time?) and selling grain when it made the most sense.
  • Risk management programs would be a non-issue.
  • Equity loans to recapitalize the business would be a completely foreign concept.
  • Acquisition decisions (land, buildings, equipment) would be easier, faster, and more empowering.
  • YOU’D HAVE LESS STRESS!
    (That is capitalized for a reason.)

Cash is the Ace. It ranks above precision planting, Group 2 resistance, or the latest technology trends. The Ace outranks the King; it outranks all the other cards.

Direct Questions

Has cash always been your Ace, or have other things become more important?

What are the top three benefits to you and your business if cash was abundant?

How confident would you be to have TWO Aces in your hand?

From the Home Quarter

We often regard agriculture as doing amazing things with scare resources. Cash does not have to be one of those scarce resources even though that has been the mantra for generations (a.k.a Asset Rich – Cash Poor). Assets do not pay bills, cash does. The desire to convert cash into assets needs to be squelched at a time when debts are high, cash flow is tight, and profit margins are narrow.

Since cash is the life blood of your business, and a critical contributor to your financial health, when is the last time you had a checkup?

With your year-end financial statements now done, you’re ready for a checkup. Email your financial statements to me and I’ll provide you with a financial health report card. Normally a $500 value, this service is free if booked by June 13, 2016.

 

dichotomy

Dichotomy

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Here is a throwback to an article I wrote in August 2015 titled Is Data Management Really Important? where I highlighted a conversation between a friend and I that included his opinion that even large corporations let their “focus (be) primarily growth & profits and how to accomplish it, with information management being thrown together afterwards.”

While I believe that statement to still be true both for large corporations and farms alike, there is something in that statement that opens up what seems to have become the dichotomy of prairie grain farming: growth or status quo.

Let’s not get hung up on “growth’ as a single definition. In March 2015, my article Always Growing…Growing All Ways clearly described a few of the many ways we can achieve growth in our businesses that does not have to be pigeon-holed into the category of “expansion.”

So let’s clarify the dichotomy as “expansion or status quo.”

Now let’s compare a couple different scenarios.

  1. In the spring of 2016, I met with a young farmer who started out in 2000 with nothing but an ag degree and desire. As he prepared to sow his seventeenth crop this spring, he showed me his numbers while admitting that he felt good about his financial position, but didn’t really know if he was good or not. He lost almost 20% of his acres from the previous year, and was happy about it because the cost to farm that land was too high and he knew it.
    When I told him that I’d peg his operation in the top 10%, maybe even the top 5% of all grain farms on the prairies, he paused and said,”OK, so what are the top 5% doing that I’m not?”
  2. There is a farmer who has been calling me off and on for a couple years now. By all accounts, it is quite a feat that he is still operating. Although he’s been farming for well over 20 years his debts are maxed out, leases are burning up cash flow faster than the Fort McMurray wildfire is burning up bush land. He spends more time running equipment that his hired men; he has no clue what his costs are; he has aggressively built his way up to 10,000ac and wants to get to 20,000ac; one of his advisors told me that his management capability was maxed out at 4,000ac.

The first scenario has the farmer focused on growth of profitability, control, and efficiency.

The second scenario has the farmer focused on growth of the number of acres on which he produces.

One would be the envy of 95% of farmers.

The other will never in his entire career get to the point of financial success that the first farmer has already achieved.

Direct Questions

Which are you more like, the first farmer above, or the second farmer?

Which farmer do you want to be like?

What are you prepared to do to get there?

From the Home Quarter

What has been described above is actually a false dichotomy. We’ve been led to believe that farms must get larger in order to survive and that small farms were doomed. What that message failed to deliver was “At what point is a farm large enough?” I am not decrying large farms or the continued expansion of farms…as long as it makes financial sense! The false dichotomy of expansion or status quo need not be black or white, left or right, mutually exclusive. Farms that are not expanding today could be expanding next year, just like farms that are expanding today may not be next year. Some farms that have expanded over the last few years might even be looking at reducing acres in the future.

Growth (expansion) at all costs can often come with the heaviest of all costs.