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growing lentils to increase gross margin

Gross Margin or Operating & Fixed Costs – What Comes First?

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The question may seem redundant or nonsensical, 6 of one and a half-dozen of the other…

Do you build your crop plan in an effort to generate sufficient gross margin to cover operating and fixed expenses, or do you budget your operating and fixed expenses to fit within your typical gross margin?

For most high cost operations I speak with, they know their costs are high and then find themselves working hard to generate adequate gross margin to cover their costs and , hopefully, leave a profit at the end.

The challenge that many high cost operators are facing is the run up of their expenses during the recent string of bullish years (land, buildings, equipment, pickups, etc.) and are now trying to manage those residual expenses during a period of tighter margins. They are focusing heavily on one of two areas:

  1. Seek out every opportunity possible to increase yields and to expose marketing opportunities, or
  2. Cut expenses to a level more in line with their farm’s historical gross margins.

It seems that the most common strategy that would fall under Point 1 above is to bring lentils into the crop rotation for 2016. The high prices are just too tantalizing to bear for most high cost producers. We will see lentils being grown in non-lentil growing areas in an effort to boost gross margin. I spoke with a young seed grower this month who told me he received a call this winter from north-east of Prince Albert looking for lentil seed. Good luck with that.

I learned of another operation, in an area that is typical for lentil failures, that dabbled in lentils in 2015. While this region can typically produce 30-50 bushel pea yields, this farm enjoyed a solid 5 bu/ac lentil yield. What is the opportunity cost of using land for a 5 bu lentil crop that could have produced a 30 bu, or even 50 bu, pea crop? Chasing rainbows? I’d say so.

A number of my clients are focusing on Point 2 above, and have been quite successful in reducing the one cost that is most controllable, yet has gotten quite high over the last few years: they are selling equipment to reduce their overall equipment cost. Whether it be liquidating the extravagant tillage tool that is only needed once in a while, moving out that sprayer that is too big for the farm size, or not acquiring that “nice to have” tractor, these farms are working to bring, and keep, their costs more in line with their expected gross margin.

Moe Russell has been quoted in these articles before, and he is on record saying, “Over the long term, the price of agricultural commodities will level out at the cost of production of the highest cost producer.” Essentially, if you’re a “highest cost producer,” over the long term you’re looking at a break even.

Direct Questions

What strategies have you employed to manage costs in the wake of tightening gross margins?

Do you budget your expenses to a level your gross margin will cover, or do you try to achieve gross margin to cover existing expenses?

From the Home Quarter

One of these approaches is top-down, the other is bottom-up. If you caught my presentation at Sask Young Ag Entrepreneur’s Annual Conference earlier in January, then you’ll have already heard my explanation of why top-down is better.

Top-down is managing your farm by budgeting your operating and fixed expenses to fall in line with your typical and expected gross margin. You have likely enjoyed a regular profit.

Bottom-up is reacting to a long line of expenses that were incurred during a short period of high profitability by trying to create a gross margin that is not very likely.

The view from the top is better.

GFP FI 4

Knowing Your Costs – Part 2: “Misplaced Priorities”

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Last week, this article weighed in on the trend of increasing costs in certain areas of the farm, namely
Operations (equipment, fuel, people,) and Facilities (buildings, land, financing.) These are the two most
controllable expense areas in farm management. These are the two cost areas that have seen the
biggest increases.

Over the winter, an old colleague and friend made the following tweet through @RCGFarmWise:
tweetMoe Russell has spent well over 30 years in farm finance
and management, and he has been tracking this kind of
info for a long time. I trust his integrity and his
information. Essentially over 5 crop years, this says that
farmers have increased equipment costs 100% faster
and land costs 400% faster than they’ve increased input
costs. In a time of high commodity prices with yields that
were typically above the long term average, this was not
uncommon.

Recently I took part in a Farm Business Development Initiative (FBDI) seminar that brought together
approved consultants and learning providers (of which I am both) to discuss updates to the program.
(Lean more at https://fbdi.gov.sk.ca/) During a conversation there, I overheard one attendee saying
how he listens to farmers “bemoaning the $60/ac they spend on seed, but nary a word to the $60/ac
increase in equipment costs they just took on.”

It is not surprising to see farmers looking to inputs first when trying to find ways to cut costs. We justify
it by lamenting increases to seed, fertilizer, and chemical prices. We validate cutting inputs by
acknowledging that inputs require the highest cash cost per acre of anything else on the farm. There are
sound ways to cut inputs; I was enjoying listening to many clients describing how they are using generic
herbicides this year, focusing heavily on scouting to verify the need for fungicides versus just spraying
anyway, etc. But when I heard one who wanted to eliminate a broadleaf herbicide in his cereals to cut
costs, even though I’m no agronomist, I quickly brought risk management to that conversation. Every
decision needs to have a risk/benefit or cost/benefit consideration. There is too much at stake!
More to the tweet above, looking under the right rock is not easy because it will force each of us to
acknowledge how and where we’ve allocated our capital. If we know we should not have increased our
“operations” cost, it’s difficult to face that reality, swallow pride, and make a better (or corrective)
decision. This is magnified in year like 2015 when excess moisture ahead of seeding turned into drought
for most of the growing season, and adding to that the late spring & early fall frosts, we could find that
many will miss their production targets. Are you confident you were using the most efficient agronomic
plan possible? Will your “operations” costs be harder to manage with missed production targets? Will
you be looking under the “inputs rock” to find ways to cut costs?

It has been said many times that “you cannot shrink your way to greatness.” Cutting inputs for the sake
of reducing costs is “shrinking” your ability to generate strong revenue. Even the best marketing cannot
make up for lost production. Your priorities need to continue for you to be:

1. The most proficient manager you can be to build a strategic and tactical plan that maximizes
ROI, personal wealth, and family values;

2. The most efficient producer you can be to lower your Unit Cost of Production;

3. The most equipped marketer you can be to hedge market risk, and generate sufficient gross
margin.

By misplacing your cost cutting priority onto the critical facets of your business as listed in the 3 points
above, you would be doing more harm than good, despite best intentions.

Direct Questions

Where have your costs experienced the greatest increase (inputs, operations, facilities)?
In recognizing the 3 critical facets above that require your full investment (management, production,
marketing,) where can you find costs that can you live without?

How confident are you in your awareness and abilities to enact appropriate cost management
strategies?

From the Home Quarter

You won’t hear me condone a general prescription of “more fertilizer,” but you will hear me advocate
for “better use of fertilizer.” It’s not about the producing biggest yield; it’s not about producing at the
lowest cost; it’s about producing the best yield at the most efficient cost. And the most efficient cost
also refers to “operations” and “facilities.” The allocation of your finite resources to those costs also
needs to be highly efficient. As a banker friend of mine likes to say, “Your crop doesn’t care what color
your equipment is.”
…or how new it is.
…or how much rent the landlord is squeezing out of you.
The purpose of your business is to grow your profits, maximize your ROI (return on investment,) and
increase your wealth. Spending over $200/ac on “operations & facilities” costs will not get you there.

grain2

Knowing Your Costs

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My clients continually educate me on the regional anomalies relating to land prices, and specifically land
rents. The common opinion among most farmers I speak with is that some of their neighbors just don’t
understand how to measure costs, and this leaves many farmers (including some of those I speak with)
feeling left out in the cold as they watch land get snapped up by someone willing to pay a rental rate
that can appear astronomical.

Based on third party feedback, meaning info shared with me by a farmer from his/her conversation with
a friend/neighbor/competitor, most decisions to take on land are being justified under the guise of
“reducing equipment costs per acre” and/or “the drive to be bigger.”

Popular ag-economics has drilled in to everyone’s head that fixed costs, like equipment, need to be
spread out over more acres to reduce the fixed costs per acre. This is simple arithmetic, and is
mathematically correct if we stop there. Stopping there allows us to feel good about the decisions we’ve
made to increase our fixed costs because “over ‘X’ acres, we’re only spending ‘Y’ dollars per acre.”

graph16

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of all the costs that farmers face, the costs they have most control over seem to be the costs that are
least controlled. MNP has coined the term LPM, and what I’ll call “operations” are a farm’s labor, power,
and machinery costs which have ballooned in recent years. Next in line is Land, Buildings, and Finance
costs, or what I’ll call “facilities,” which have also grown significantly. Increase land costs (rent) to justify
increased equipment costs: think about it, we’re increasing costs to validate increased costs…
We expect to make a profit from taking risk. The more risk we take, the more profit we expect. My
concern comes from witnessing decisions that magnify risk and leave the expectation of profit as a
secondary, or even tertiary, consideration.

Direct Questions

Take a look at your expected gross margin this harvest. How much gross margin will you have available
to contribute to “operations,” “facilities,” administration costs, and PROFIT?

What is your “operations” cost? What are your target costs for “operations?” Did you know the most
profitable farmers keep their “operations” cost below $100/ac?

Have you traced your line from gross revenue and gross margin through to costs and down to profit?
Where can you improve?

From the Home Quarter

We cannot eliminate risk, we can only manage it. We cannot eliminate expenses, we can only manage
them. We cannot manage what we do not measure. If the purpose of your business is to increase profits
and grow your wealth, should you not ensure that the risks you take and the expenses you incur fit into a plan
for profit?

 

Understanding Costs – a graphical simulation

graph17

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the example above, which illustrates a generic but common scenario on average grain farms in 2015,
a net loss of $9/ac is expected. But the top 10% of farms with a similar gross margin could show a net
profit of $40/ac, simply from excellent management of their controllable expenses: operations, facilities,
and admin.

grass

Information Management – Healthcare vs Your Farm

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Of all of the places one can imagine, our health care system is the preeminent entity that I believe
should be leaps and bounds ahead of everyone when it comes to managing data.

Over the last year or so, I’ve listened to my father-in-law’s observations about our healthcare system as
he led the charge relating to the changing needs of his disabled sister. He described how one nurse
would come into the hospital room, ask a series of questions, make some observations, take some
notes, and then leave. Shortly afterwards, another nurse would come into the hospital room, ask a
series of similar questions (getting similar answers,) make some observations, take some notes, and
then leave. At some point, a doctor would come into the hospital room, ask a series of similar questions
(and get similar answers,) make some observations, take some notes, and then leave. Usually these
notes where made on a chart that hung outside the hospital room door.

Some thoughts:

  • The cost incurred to have 3 highly paid and very intelligent individuals gathering similar
    information would likely astound me;
  • All of the information gatherers collected similar information, and compiled it into one paper-based record;
    Could anyone walking by a hospital room with malicious intent grab someone’s chart and leave
    that patient’s caregivers without access to critical information? Why isn’t this electronically
    secure yet (it’s only 2015 already!)
  • Patients get tired of answering the same question over and over;
  • Why wouldn’t the health regions equip each caregiver with a tablet computer that brings up a
    patient’s entire health history with the scan of a QR code that could be found on the patient’s
    wrist band?

Why am I writing about this? How is this important to you? First off, our healthcare should be of great
importance to everyone. But specifically as it relates to this blog, consider the
paragraph and bullet points above, but this time let the patient be your farm and the caregivers be your
business advisor, your lender, and your marketing advisor.

Direct Questions

How much better would it be to have all of your critical business information readily available for your
strategic partners to help you more effectively and efficiently manage your business?

How inefficient is it for each party to have to ask you for the same info? Your time is worth something
too, so wouldn’t you be better off not having to run through the same routine 3 times over?

How much risk is your business at if you were to lose, accidentally or maliciously, your historical business
information?

We’re a decade-and-a-half into the 21st century, and technology is awesome. When are we going to start
trusting it and using it to its full potential?

From the Home Quarter

I believe we have the best healthcare system in the western hemisphere, and I am by no means
criticizing any of our hard working health-care providers. But I do question the bureaucracy and
inefficiency that plagues the system (at least in the eyes of this layman.) I think we could do so much
better, which would then allow those on the front lines to spend more time providing healthcare rather
than administering information.

I believe that Western Canadian farmers are of the most efficient producers in the world, and I am by no
means criticizing any of your advancements and dedication to improving your production. But I do
question the lack of urgency and the failure to recognize the importance of having up to date critical
business information readily at your fingertips. You aren’t making the same type of “life and death”
decisions that are made daily by our health-care providers, but the decisions you make for your business
will effectively set in motion the cause and effect that can lead to life or death of your business.

Call to Action – Rate your current information management practices:

1. Can you produce your working capital figure within 2-3 minutes at your computer?

2. Can you advise what your total fertilizer cost per acre is by field? By crop?

3. Can you produce a current list of all farm assets with market values?

4. Do you keep a rolling list of cash requirements for the next 18 months? (i.e. loan payments,
property taxes, insurance premiums, etc.)

5. If you’re not willing to compile this critical information, are you willing (or can you) hire
someone to do it for you?

If you’ve answered YES to at least 4/5, congratulations, you’re ahead of the curve.
If you’ve answered YES to 3/5 or fewer, then please pick up the phone and ask for help.
(Hint: I always return voice mail messages.)

GFP FI 2

The Drought Dilemma

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The smoky haze we started inhaling yesterday drives home more than ever just how dry it really is.
#Drought15 is the Twitter hashtag to learn about how bad it is beyond our respective back doors. By all
accounts, crops are suffering and market prices are starting to reflect it. Those who are in an area that
has been, and/or remains, too wet just might be coyly denying that they ever complained about the
rain.

While it is too early to get a handle on any semblance of accurate yield estimates, people I’ve been
talking with have tossed around phrases such as “July harvest” on lentils, and described wheat crops
that are ready to push heads despite only being approximately 2 feet tall. What might be in those heads
if another hot dry windy week prevails?

As a farmer, you are an optimist. Even the most pessimistic ornery old codger you can imagine is still an
optimist if he’s a farmer. If he wasn’t, he’d never put a crop in the ground each spring. But as optimistic
as “Well, if we get one good rain in the next 4-5 days” sounds, it’s not going to make it rain. Despite the
drizzle we’re seeing today, one rain does not make a crop. If you’ve got payments to make, payables to
cover, even payroll to meet, you might want to start thinking about how that will all get done if
#Drought15 persists.

  1. Speak with your creditors.
    They’re not clueless; they hear the weather forecasts and read the crop reports. But they also
    won’t assume; they won’t assume that you’ll have trouble making payments because your crop
    is not going to meet expectations. As far as they’re concerned, you’ll be fully capable of
    satisfying the obligations you promised to make when you signed the loan or lease
    documents…unless they hear otherwise.
    And remember, your lenders are not problem fixers, so coming to them after the trouble gets
    real makes it far more difficult. They have more opportunity to help when they can be proactive.
  2. Consider your options.
    Do you remember Growing Farm Profits Weekly Issue #9? “Life and business can often be like
    snowmobiling: when trouble is ahead sometimes you need to pull back and sometimes you
    need to stay on the throttle.” What is your best option considering your crop’s development to
    date? I recently read an article discussing the possibility of reseeding barley on fields that have
    been froze out or droughted out. Considering the dire need for feed this year, cattlemen will be
    interested in green feed or silage barley. Is it time to consider how that might pencil out?
  3. Change your plans.
    The decisions you made last year and the year before were based on the best information you
    had at the time. The current situation differs greatly and probably requires a new decision.
    Swallowing pride and allowing yourself to change/reverse/discard old decisions could be exactly
    what your business needs. Nay, it IS what your business needs because your business is
    constantly changing and so should your decisions. Knowing when to do so is just as important.

Direct Questions

How would you rate yourself as far as being agile to your financial obligations in light of poor crop
conditions?

How would your stress level decrease if you took 10% of the time and effort you spend on worrying
about the existing crop conditions and used it to contact your strategic partners and advisors to amend
2015 expectations?

Are you staunchly sticking to your past decisions or are you being flexible and responsive to the needs of
your business?

From the Home Quarter

About 17 or 18 months ago, I blogged about how we need to reset what our expectation of success
really is. After the record 2013 crop, the 2014 crop year was poised to be a real disappointment in
comparison. Considering so far this year we generally went from adequate or excessive moisture in
March to a drought by mid-May, I’d suggest we look at 2015 for what it is and be realistic about what
we can call success. To give you a glimpse of what I mean, in 2014 I was working with a farm that
projected an operating loss due to the excessive moisture, crop quality issues, dropping grain prices, and
high fixed costs. The comment during planning was “OK, so we’re expecting to lose only about $300,000
in 2014; that’s decent considering what it could be.” They reset their expectation of success based on
what they saw.

Take a good hard look at your current year, be realistic with expectations, and make changes as
required. We can help make sense of it, take the emotion out of it, and assist with establishing new
plans.

If you’d like help planning your farm for business and personal success, then call me or send an email.

blindside

The Blindside

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No not the Hollywood movie, but the way prairie farmers have been blindsided by these late spring
frosts.

I haven’t done the research, but it’s fair to say that we’d be hard pressed to recall a year when we’ve
had such a string of days where the daily low temperatures are well below freezing. Word has it that
farmers in many areas now are beginning to prepare for reseeding.

Show of hands: how many built reseeding into their 2015 crop plan? I didn’t think so. How many of you
who are reseeding are rejigging your budget and projections? It better be all of you.

It’s not just the extra cost of seed, fuel, wages, etc. It also means later emergence and maturity which
will impact yield, and maybe quality. For how challenging it has been to deliver grain in the last few
years, if late maturity means you now cannot deliver off the combine in August or September as per
your contract, will you be forced to wait until December, or even March? Have you considered how this
could impact cash flow?

Don’t get lulled into oversimplifying the adjustments to your projections. It’s easy to just add in cost for
more seed. But a couple bucks an acre here for labor, and a couple more bucks there for fuel on the
extra pass add up. And I don’t know of too many 2015 projections that have much wiggle room.

Direct Questions

Have you provided realistic amendments to yield and price projections based on reseeding dates and
rates.

Have you considered how the later seeding dates due to reseeding will affect your new crop delivery
opportunities, and therefore, your cash flow?

Do you have sufficient working capital to get through this unplanned extra cost?

From the Home Quarter

Anyone who is dealing with Mother Nature’s blindside string of frosty nights will be significantly
impacted in all 3 critical areas of their farm: production, marketing, and financial management.
Consequentially, the other critical areas of your business will also be affected: family, wealth, and
potentially your health.

You must, at your very first chance, update your projections for 2015 with realistic and conservative
information. And for goodness sake, let your lenders know ASAP, not just next spring when you’re doing
your annual review.

This bolsters my argument for strong working capital. Every farm, your farm, is at risk of a blindside
attack at any time from a variety of sources. Adequate working capital is the best way to ensure you’ll
get through it.
If you’d like help establishing strategies to ensure you build adequate working capital,
then call me or send an email.

information

How Good is Your Information?

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I’ve been staunchly encouraging (ok, pushing) my clients to up the ante on how they manage their
business information. As we look at 2015, it is clear that opportunities for profit will be harder to find
than in years past and we must use every tool at our disposal to make the best decisions possible.

Enter data management.

Why do you think retail spaces are designed the way they are? It comes from the retailer devoting
incredible resources to study the habits and behaviors of its shoppers. They take that information and
then design spaces in such a way that plays to the habits and behaviors of their shoppers so as to put
the desired products in front of their shoppers at the desired time and place during the shopping
experience. For example, they have learned that typically shoppers turn right versus left as soon as they
enter a store, and thus plan their store layout in a way that panders to a shopper’s subconscious
behavior AND the retailer’s intention to sell high margin items. Maybe it’s that shoppers turn left and
not right, but you get the point, so who cares? Business cares, that’s who.

Like that retail giant, you have the ability to make important business decisions based on specific
management data. You would use your historical agronomic data to decide which crop offers the best
profitability on each specific field (relative to rotation.) You review historical financial statements to
measure actual results versus projected results. You analyze soil test reports to determine how much
residual nutrient remains in your soil before making fertilizer purchases. This could go on and on.
I spend a lot of time working on True Cost of Production calculations and building Profit Curves for my
clients. I can only do a precise job with complete and accurate information. And when you’re using that
work to make important business decisions, it is imperative that you provide usable and accurate info.
The retailer will often hire out the collecting and compiling of data as well as the analysis and the
creation of a final report with recommendations. The final report can only be as good as the quality of
the data collected. The retailer could invest millions of dollars based on the information in that final
report.

Your business is no different: you collect and compile your own data; if you need the help, there are
qualified advisors available to help you decipher it and provide recommendations; you are then more
confident in future business decisions because you make the most informed choice available.

I am often asked for suggestions as to which data management platform to use. I liken it to exercise: you
can run, bike, jog, swim, whatever…as long as you’re exercising. Same with your farm data, there are
many platforms available; find the one that feels best for you…as long as you’re using it.

Direct Questions

Does your data management practice include data as precise as pounds of nutrient per acre by crop?
Are you retaining records of historical information to establish trend lines?
Are you recording your data at all, even if it is just a pencil and a ledger?

From the Home Quarter

There’s a lot of noise out there about “big data” and ownership/use of that data, and for good reason.
I’m not condoning the perceived risks relating to big data’s custody and/or use of your info, but in reality
we’ve been letting Google do it to us for a very long time already. Does that make it acceptable? No, of
course not. But do we let that be the excuse to not collect and manage our data? The actual harm done
to our business from not collecting data is greater than the risk of harm from potential illicit use of our
data. The cost of doing nothing in this case is far greater than the risk of doing the wrong thing.
I don’t care if you use a “big data” cloud based platform, or a spreadsheet on your Windows 95
computer. You owe it to yourself and to your business to make the most informed decisions possible.
The best decisions are made with good information. How good is your information?

If you’d like help planning your farm for business and personal success, then call me or send an email.

Cost of Production

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I got a little worked up last week when I saw a tweet that read “Cost of production matters in 2015 –
The Western Producer” and included a link to the article. Even though that wasn’t the article’s title, I still
had to sit down and scribe this.

Let me be very clear: cost of production matters every year. Period.

Cost of Production is the most basic principle that must be employed when making marketing decisions.
If you don’t have a clear understanding of your COP, then you are putting the survival of your business
at grave risk. Why? Because how would you know if you’re selling for a profit or not?

 

venne2

The WP article states, “A 38 bu. (canola) crop and a $9.45 price could yield $70 per acre before labour
and equipment costs.” That’s nice, but why would we not include our labor and equipment costs? Will
the crop magically seed and harvest itself?

COP only begins with your seed, chemical and fertilizer costs. It must also include all other operating
costs AND your fixed costs.

Now work back from your actual, or projected, yield and we come to the real figure that matters: unit
cost of production.

If you know that it costs your farm $6 to grow a bushel of canola, isn’t a $9/bu selling price a nice
target? By the way, that’s 50% ROI.

 

Direct Questions

What was your gross margin per acre in 2014?

Do you include your fixed costs when working out Cost of Production calculations? If no, why not?
How do you know what is a profitable selling price for your crop if you don’t know what it cost you to
grow it?

Do you discover whether or not you’re profitable only when you receive the accountant prepared
financial statements?

From the Home Quarter

In the simple calculation of “Revenue – Costs = Profit,” how can we be expected to make profitable
decisions without intimately knowing our costs? Every business that produces anything, from ocean
freighters to widgets, knows exactly what it costs to produce one item. Why doesn’t every farm know
their costs the same way?

As a special offer to the readers of this blog, I will conduct a Farm Financial
Review™ for up to 5 qualifying farm businesses at $475 (normally a $875 value.) This will include a
review of your 2014 financial results and a Cost of Production Analysis. Work must be booked by the end
of January and completed by the end of February. Please call or email for details.