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The Uncontrollables

The Uncontrollables

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There are many factors at play which affect your business each day. (Oh, look…I’m a poet and didn’t even know it.)

How is your business affected by:

  • NAFTA
  • Trade Wars
  • Real Wars
  • Geopolitical strife
  • Interest Rates
  • Income Tax
  • Sales Tax
  • Foreign Exchange
  • Oil Prices
  • Commodity Prices
  • Utility Prices
  • Inflation
  • Deflation
  • Theft and Vandalism
  • Weather and Natural Disasters
  • The 4 D’s (Death, Divorce, Disagreement, Disability)
  • Physical, Emotional, Spiritual, and Mental Health

You have full control over none of these. At best, you might have partial influence over two or three on that list. Yet you, your business, and ultimately your family will all feel an effect that falls somewhere between minimal and profound.

The way to minimize the negative effect of any of The Uncontrollables is to prepare. You wouldn’t head out on a road trip with an empty fuel tank and no spare tire, would you?

A strong balance sheet (meaning low Debt to Equity along with surplus Working Capital) will mitigate the negative effects of The Uncontrollables. Conducting sensitivity analyses on the likes of tariffs, interest rate changes, tax changes, and foreign exchange will provide your business with the critical knowledge needed to make informed decisions in the face of The Uncontrollables.

Plan for Prosperity

We can scream and holler, protest, or pout all we like in the face of The Uncontrollables; it will change nothing.

God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

-Reinhold Niebuhr

Having the wisdom to know the difference between between what you can control and what you can’t is merely the fist step; acknowledgement of what you cannot control on its own will not mitigate the effect of The Uncontrollables. Action will trump intention every time.

Take action to protect your business, your family, your legacy. You need not be a rudderless vessel helplessly surviving on the mercy of the sea. There is no need to be stranded on the side of the road with no fuel, no spare tire, and no phone.

Bubbles2

Bubbles

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One of my investment advisers forwarded an article to me recently that contained an especially compelling paragraph. The entire article is US focused, penned by a US writer and published in a US publication (reprinted in Canada in the Financial Post.) Still, the applications of these two sentences are broad and deep:

“…it (recent economic growth) is driven by another round of financial engineering that converts equity into debt. It sacrifices future growth for present consumption.”

– Steven Pearlstein, June 15, 2018

The comparison was being made to the US housing crash that kicked off the global financial crisis in 2008. We all know what happened there; no need to rehash it here.

Yet here we are, barely 10 years later, standing at what some people feel is the precipice of another recession.

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

– George Santayana (Ref.)

The statement from Pearlstein referenced above does have application locally: the recent rapid appreciation of farmland has provided a financial backstop to farm businesses that would have otherwise found themselves painted into a very tight corner. The present consumption, elevated operation costs and living costs driven by high priced equipment and higher living standards, is what, in this space, is leading to the sacrifice of future growth. Here is what I mean…

Les Henry recently penned an article titled Saskatchewan Farm Income and Land Prices which was published in Grainews. He compares farm income and land prices having converted both to 2018 dollars to quantify his position. An example Henry uses in the article describes how a friend of his purchased a brand new loaded Lincoln in the mid-1070’s and how the equivalent number of bushels of wheat, the staple crop in those days, was approximately 1,500 bushels needed to purchase that car. My dad used to make the same argument using the example of the only new tractor he ever bought: a 1974 CASE 970 that arrived in the yard with the plastic still on the seat. The qualifying statement was that it only required 2,870 bushels of wheat in 1974 to buy it; about 7 bushels per acre on his small farm. What does 7 bushels of wheat get you today on your farm?

Les Henry believes that current land prices are unsustainable. If he is correct, then we are almost certain to experience a bubble, even if it is a small one simply because of the amount of “equity” being used to backstop present consumption. Equity is in quotes because it was not earned equity from retaining profits in a business, but rather windfall equity from land value appreciation (similar to what set off the US housing crisis.) The rise in land values created the equity that, in many cases, has been turned into debt. Should land values pull back, lenders will be quickly re-evaluating their security and making some difficult phone calls where warranted.

If there is a bubble happening here, all that “equity” that was converted to debt has certainly helped create it.

Plan for Prosperity

We have dedicated a lot of space to discussions on growth here recently. It saddens me to think that future growth may have been sacrificed for current consumption. However, unless the wolves are near the door there is still opportunity to right the ship. Profit opportunities can be found, but it will take work, intention, and likely having to answer some uncomfortable questions.

The last five weeks we have discussed business cycles, elasticity of demand, the power of a network, intentionality in your business, and your vision in your business. It is no surprise that each of these topics, if parlayed into tangible action within your business, translate into a stronger entity that would likely provide a view from high on “success mountain” looking from a safe vantage point well above the “precipice of economic recession.”

If you want some ideas on how to climb higher up onto Success Mountain, please call or email.

 

facets of growth

Facets of Growth

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It’s been said that we should think of our business like a tree…
“What is a tree always doing?”
“Growing.”
“If it’s not growing, what is it doing?”
“Dying…”

The analogy ends there. A tree can only grow one way: bigger. Our business must grow many ways.

“Better is better before bigger is better.”

-Danny Klinefelter, Professor and Extension Economist, Texas A&M University

Over my nearly 15 years as a lender and business adviser, I have seen dozens of examples of businesses that grew in only one way. These businesses are not industry specific, they are quite agnostic actually. From construction to farming, from trucking to consulting, many businesses drive themselves straight into the arms of failure simply because they overlooked getting better before they rushed out to get bigger.

Facets of Growth 1The graphic represents a snippet of the numerous facets that drive growth. All have a significant effect on the success of growth aspirations. This graphic is certainly not exhaustive; we are merely dipping our toes in the water. However, each spoke in that wheel has numerous sub-topics, and like a diamond, the many facets have varying purposes, importance, and brilliance.

RE: Customers – How can you grow your customer base? What do your customer like about you? What do they dislike? How do customers find you? How do you find them?

RE: Product/Service – What is your product or service? Is demand growing or shrinking? Which is your link in the value chain (IE. do you manufacture the raw product or do you retail to the final user, or somewhere in between?)

RE: Finance/Cash Flow – Are you financially strong enough to support and sustain the growth you desire? Will the growth you desire help or hinder your cash flow? Can you access the financing you need?

RE: Human Capital – Have you built a team of highly valuable people who drive results in your business? Will your business operate just fine in your absence? Do you people have the ability and desire for more responsibility?

RE: Information Management – Do you have systems in place to provide you with current and accurate information readily available anytime, specific to working capital, accounts receivable & payable, inventory, days to cash, etc?

RE: Management Capacity – Do you, as the manager, have the capacity to literally handle the growth you desire? What skills do you have that are better used in another part of the business? What skills are you lacking in your current role?

Seventeen questions related to six facets of growth; if you were to answer them with brutal honesty, is there room to improve on any of them? Is there opportunity “to grow”? If it is true that better is better before bigger is better (HINT: it IS true) then we’ve just provided you with six major factors in your business where growth can occur. There are more, but if you’ve looked after these first 6, the results will amaze you.

Plan for Prosperity

Growth is not a result or a destination.
It is a process.
It is a mindset.
It is a culture.
It is complex.
It is difficult.
It is worth it.

Tragedy Broncos

When Tragedy Strikes

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It hits hard. Like a body blow from Mike Tyson. You didn’t know you could feel that much pain. Suddenly, everything else seem to not matter except for what you’re feeling in that moment.

When word began to spread during the evening of April 6, the feeling of shock touched everyone. A Junior “A” hockey team in their charter bus on the way to play Game 5 of the league semi-final series collides with a loaded semi tractor-trailer.

Shock instantly turned to devastation. Twenty-nine on the bus. Fifteen would perish. Ten of those lost were players on the team, aged 16 to 21.

It took me until the next morning to be able to gather any sort of rational thought. The realization that so many families would be more profoundly affected than most any of us can imagine can take some time to sink in.

Then the world took notice. To make an already told story short, in less than 60 hours people from around the world have donated, at the time of this writing, nearly $6million to help support the families of the victims of this horrible tragedy. https://www.gofundme.com/funds-for-humboldt-broncos

I lost one of my oldest friends in our senior year of high school. She was a passenger in a car, unassuming on a Friday afternoon, her dad’s birthday of all days, when a tragic collision took her…three weeks before her 18th birthday, six weeks before her high school graduation. It will be 25 years next month since she’s been gone.

Life is fragile, it can change in a blink, and must not be taken for granted. Facing our own mortality is not easy; it is something that young men playing junior hockey, nor my old friend, had not likely given much thought.

None of us is immune to the tragedy that the world can bring our way. If tragedy strikes your business, how will it carry on? Are all your affairs in order? What if you or a key person in your business didn’t come home tonight?

Plan for Prosperity

Proper business planning has us strategizing on how to handle the “what if”. This type of preparation also applies to our person. Get your will, powers of attorney, and organ donor card in place; share your wishes with your loved ones; don’t take the inevitable for granted.

And hug those you love…often. Life is never fair, and is always short.

Financial data

Questions from Farmers

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Over the winter, I do a number of speaking engagements, usually around finance and management. Here are some questions and comments from the audience, and excerpts of my response.

 

Farmer: How do I improve my working capital and current ratio?

Kim: Simply put, either reduce your current liabilities or increase your current assets…or both! Considering current liabilities, what makes up the lion’s share? Typically it’s lines of credit, cash advances, and loan payments due in the current year. So to achieve the goal of reducing current liabilities, over time (because it will take time) wean yourself off of operating credit. Protect, even hoard, your cash over time so that you can achieve working capital equal to 50% of your annual cash costs. By the time you achieve that level of working capital, your current ratio should be very strong.

 

Farmer: As someone who is still in growth phase, I can’t expect the kind of return on my cash costs that you’re suggesting. Isn’t it okay to run at zero because I’m in a growth phase?

Kim: First, your business and the industry are cyclical, so yes there will be years when your return is zero, but don’t accept being at zero year over year for any length of time. That being said, your growth phase is likely running your cash to zero, and what I’m prescribing as “return on cash costs” is a profitability measure; they’re different. A business can be profitable and have no cash because the cash might be immediately fed directly into the growth of the business. Yes, you’re going to run tight on cash during a growth phase, but don’t accept poor profitability.

 

The following are a sample of comments made by participants:

  • Mentioning “Mission” and “Vision” statements is interesting. I don’t think having one makes you more money, but it’s funny how those that have one are doing better than those that don’t.
  • I’m trying to figure out how to value unborn calves when looking at my working capital.
  • This current ratio figure is going to swing widely depending on when (what time of year) you do it.
  • Don’t buy (something like equipment or pick-up trucks) just because you have some cash.
  • We’ve got someone doing our books for us, and we review all our ratios monthly.
  • I never viewed HR as a risk before.
  • Every farmer should attend this seminar. Even if they know everything you’ve discussed, it’s a good refresher.

 

Plan for Prosperity

There is a reason I use the heading “Plan for Prosperity” for my closing comments: we need to plan our businesses. Whether that be our 10 year strategy, the next 18 months of cash flow, or determining how our growth aspirations would be affected by a rising dollar or rising interest rates, planning is key to your business. And the planning must, yes…MUST, go beyond the crop plan. That crop plan is but one aspect of your business. Don’t ignore the others unless you don’t want prosperity.

When considering how to approach the plans you must address in your business, consider the following three questions in order:

  1. Why do we do what we do?
  2. What do we want to achieve?
  3. How will we do it?

If you’ve managed to provide honest and detailed answers, the rest of the “planning” becomes much more clear.

 

blindspot

Blind Spot

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The bigger the rig, the bigger the blind spot.

For those of us who drive or have driven semi (a.k.a. highway tractor) the blind spot is a reality we must be vigilant of every time we roll. Most “4 wheelers” have never experienced the challenge of maneuvering a vehicle of that size.

Small cars have blind spots too. They are, however, much smaller and therefore easier to manage. It does not matter how big your vehicle is, your blind spot is dangerous if you don’t turn your head to have a look.

With multiple mirrors, and now even with on-board cameras, managing the blind spot has come a long way. Tools and technology have made blind-spot management far more effective.

But the blind spot is still dangerous if you don’t use the tools.

What blind spots do you need to manage in your business? Some blind spots that I’ve seen cause problems for business owners include making decisions with short term emotion versus long term vision, complacency, and entitlement, just to name a few.

All the tools and tech in the world won’t eliminate the risks coming out of your blind spot, especially if you don’t turn your head and have a look…

Short Term Emotional Decisions vs Long Term Vision

Everywhere I look, I see growing examples of business owners making short term decisions based on emotion that ignore any long term vision. In agriculture, it’s applying last year’s factors, such as drought, hail, or disease to this year’s plan. To paraphrase an astute and highly intelligent young farmer I spoke with in the last wee, “many farmers will put big hail insurance coverage on land that saw hail last year for the first time in over 10 years, or they’ll build a 2018 crop plan that is suited to a lack of moisture because of the drought in 2017…”
I see examples in cash flow management where business owners will spend frivolously after one or two good years in a row instead of building a war chest of working capital from recalling the tough times of recent memory (“recent” being a relative term that would extend to as few as 10 years ago.)

Complacency

We’ve heard all the anecdotal evidence of how we must be adaptable to change, change is the only constant, innovate or die, etc. etc.  Or the cringe-worthy, six deadliest words in business: “We’ve always done it this way.” Complacency in business is a killer. Just ask Kodak, Nokia, and Blockbuster Video.
We are in the digital age where automation, the Internet of Things, and machine to machine communication will continue to rapidly move from concepts we read about in industry publications to standard fare. Indoor plumbing and color TVs were once outlier ideas too…

Entitlement

At TEPAP, I listened in on a discussion contrasting nepotism, which usually carries with it a negative connotation, and entitlement. “Entitlement” ranks way up there on the list of my most despised words. Admittedly, I’m not a fan of “nepotism” either, but it is not inherently bad. It is when entitlement infiltrates the nepotism that things can go bad.

nepotism
ˈnepəˌtizəm
noun: patronage bestowed or favoritism shown on the basis of family relationship, as in business and politics;
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/nepotism

 

Plan for Prosperity

These are but three blind spots that can cause you problems in business. There are more, but each business and family are different, so none can apply to everyone every time. Ignoring your blind spot will allow a risk to sneak up on you. Yes, even if you’re in your semi-truck and a motorcycle is in your blind spot, you won’t likely be fatally injured if you collide, but your rig will be damaged and your trip disrupted. In this metaphor, the truck is your business, the motorcycle is the unforeseen risk you didn’t notice because you failed to check your blind spot. The damage to your rig may be financially insignificant, but still requires attention that is taken away from your business. The trip that was disrupted is your cash-flow, potentially your profit, and maybe, ultimately, your success.
What if you were the motorcycle and it was a semi-truck in your blind spot?
Drive safe…
profit

Is Profit a Part of Your Strategy?

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Recently I met a confident cattleman who clearly displayed zero interest in what I do for clients and how they can benefit. He was very direct in describing his costs, and knew his break-even on his animals (right to the paperclips.)  He received a compliment from me on being ahead of many of his competitors.

To test me (or so I think this is why) he asked what he should do with his heifers this fall. After admitting that I am not an astute cattle market advisor since most of my work with farms are grain farms, I asked what his thoughts were if he and I weren’t having this conversation. He said he’d keep them and only cull a handful of cows. Doing so would increase his breeding herd by one-third. This, at a time when we’re coming off a serious drought which has left feed stocks and pastures in tight supply and at premium prices.

He sold fed calves this fall for enough to make a tidy profit. In the same breath he bemoans the price insurance premium he paid this year. I wouldn’t have thought that creating enough profit from operations so as not to need risk management programs was a bad thing…

Further to his question about what to do with his heifers, I said that I’d first need to know where the market is headed by taking a look at the futures market for beef and for the Canadian dollar. This was a lead-in to ask him if he does any hedging. His response was, “No, we’re not on the right side to do that.” Puzzled, I asked him to explain. He described how “lots of guys out there hedge the dollar, price all their barley, and contract their sales…basically they’re doing everything to lock in a profit.”

I let that statement stew for a moment; I wanted his own words to sink in.

Then I just blurted out, “That sounds fantastic! Why wouldn’t everyone do that?”

There was no response.

It was at that moment that I knew there was no point berating the issue further. Here was a cattle operator who knew his costs but refused to use that knowledge to his betterment. There was nothing I could say in that moment that would lead him to take a different action.

To Plan for Prosperity

Profit is not a bad thing, it is a very good thing and business must do everything possible to maximize it. The story above is real, and more of the story includes a decision on whether this cattleman should pursue off-farm employment because the cattle alone aren’t providing sufficient income.

I’m puzzled at how off-farm employment along with the cattle herd simply creates more work and is an option being considered, yet more work to maximize profitability in the cattle herd (hedging strategy) isn’t work that is desirable.

Profit feeds your business, it feeds your family, and it feeds your ability to spend time with your family & on other things you enjoy.

Profit is not a bad thing, it is a very good thing.

Is profit a part of your strategy?

Perspective

Perspective

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What do you want to accomplish between now and Oct 1, 2018?

If I had asked many of you that question one year ago, you might have provided a response that would make you cringe using the lens of today. Last year, may farms were suffering from excess moisture, and long drawn out harvest. On this date one year ago, there were millions of acres yet to be harvested in western Canada. If one year ago you were hoping for a hot dry 2017, well…you got it.

How has your perspective changed over the course of a year? What is affecting the change in your perspective? If you’re more concerned about short term fluctuations rather than big picture issues, such as a recent market correction versus the tax changes currently proposed by our federal government, then you’re probably looking down the hood of the truck instead of down the road.

If you’re more concerned about short term fluctuations rather than big picture issues, then you’re probably looking down the hood of the truck instead of down the road.

My best client relationship has evolved from our original work of clarifying Unit Cost of Production by drilling down operating and overhead costs, so that we are now pursuing 5 year expansion strategies and establishing tactics for handing off management activities as part of a transition plan that is still 5-10 years away.

In the next breath, when asked “What is the greatest challenge on farms today,” I regretfully cutoff whoever is asking the question by blurting out “cash flow.”

I see numerous farms who do not suffer cash flow challenges. They experience the same weather, the same markets, the same interest rates. Yet somehow these farms do not suffer under the same cash flow pressure. Why is that?

Perspective.

Successful businesses have a long term perspective. Those businesses recognize the variability in the aspects affecting their business that they cannot control (like weather, markets, interest rates), and as such, they prepare themselves and their businesses for what’s coming “down the road.”

Looking down the hood instead of down the road doesn’t give you time to prepare and react to what’s coming up ahead.

Here is an easy recipe to help prepare for what’s coming up “down the road”:

  1. Understand cost of production, right down to the paperclips.
  2. Get lean in how you manage your operating and overhead costs.
  3. Maintain modest personal drawings.
  4. Eliminate unnecessary assets and the debt they bring with them.
  5. Build working capital to a minimum of 50% of annual cash costs.

By implementing these 5 steps into your action plan before spring, you will instantly be miles ahead of your competitors one year from now.

To Plan for Prosperity

There is no crystal ball in my possession, so I cannot predict what is coming down the road. What I can tell you is that I have seen the effects of business cycles on the unprepared, I have seen the effects of poor perspective on the oblivious. Conversely, I hold great admiration for the business people who had the foresight to control all that they were able to control, including how they were affected by that which they couldn’t control.

What’s your perspective?

Canola 100 fail title

Why the Canola 100 Challenge is So Wrong

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Announced two years ago around this time, the Canola 100 challenge baits farmers into taking part in a “moonshot”: an attempt to produce a verified canola yield of 100 bushels per acre. It isn’t that efforts to increase yield aren’t a good thing, because they are. But by what means are we attempting to achieve these yields?

This “contest” may be virtuous in spirit, but it overlooks the not-so-old adage that “better is better before bigger is better.” That applies to this argument too.

The rationale behind my position is supported in this Western Producer article that describes a farmer’s chase of this moonshot, throwing everything including the kitchen sink at his crop in an attempt to cash in on the Canola 100 prize. (Spoiler alert: it failed miserably.) This particular attempt can be summarized in this quote from the article:

The fertility program cost $300 per acre more than what was done to the check field but yielded only 70 bu. per acre, which was 1.4 bu. per acre more than the check field.

The driving factor behind efforts to maximize yields should be ROI (Return on Investment) and Gross Margin. Doing so would focus on maximum economic yield, not maximum production yield. There’s something about that pesky law of diminishing returns that gets overlooked when trying to shoot for the moon…

If maximum economic yield is the target, then Gross Margin is the focus. How that gross margin is achieved is up to each producer, but make no mistake about where the focus needs to be. In my experience, minimum gross margin, that is gross revenue less seed, chemicals, and fertilizers, at MINIMUM needs to be 65% to sustain the business. High cost operations need greater gross margin to cover all those costs.

To put that in reverse, if 35% of your gross revenue can go to crop inputs, then each $1.00 invested into inputs should return $2.86 in gross revenue. To apply this to the example above, the “extra $300 per acre” in fertility should have delivered $858/ac in gross revenue. If Canola was $10/bu, that’s nearly 86 bushels per acre above the check field.

Canola 100 fail

Let’s push the argument harder: if the example above actually hit 100 bushels per acre, and acknowledging the control field yielded 68.6 bu/ac, the gross margin on the Canola 100 plot was $14 per acre, or about 4.67%.

This is IF the 100 bushel yield was achieved…and face it, $14 gross margin doesn’t pay many bills; in fact, it wouldn’t even buy the fuel for the contest plot.

To Plan for Prosperity

Make no mistake about the messaging here: as a producer of commodities, you need the bushels!!! But do not lose sight of the fact that as a producer of commodities, your only chance of remaining sustainably profitable is to produce at the lowest cost per unit. Period. Chasing maximum yield at a 1:1 ROI won’t get it done.

1. What is your historical gross margin?
2. What are your operating and overhead costs?
3. Know these to be able to plan for maximum economic yield.

 

Better is Better

Better is Better…

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Would you rather make $50/acre profit on 20,000 acres or $100/acre profit on 10,000 acres?

This is a question I ask any farmer who admits to pursuing aggressive expansion. As was aptly described in a recent edition of FCC’s AgriSuccess  in May 2017, journalist Kevin Hursh discusses cost effectiveness of farm expansion with Kristjan Hebert. Kristjan has been quoted in this commentary a number of times in the past because he is the first person I hear using the term “Better is better before bigger is better.” To his credit, he admits that it isn’t his phrase; he heard first heard it from someone else.

The question posed at the beginning of this piece is meant to evoke an admission of any business flaws that have crept in to the practices and decisions that drive aggressive expansion.

The point is acknowledge that for all the risk undertaken in the operations of any agricultural enterprise over the course of one year, the end result must recognize the effort involved and the risk taken. If you’re working harder and risking more, why would you accept less profit? True, the linear dollar profit is the same in this example, but the profit per unit (in this case, per acre) is half. Anyone who can prove that their whole farm costs, right to the paperclips, are also halved is welcome to step up and prove that bigger is in fact better. I’ll wait…

There are many advisors who have questioned why any commodity production business would want to rapidly expand before doing the best job they can on what they already have. The argument on what led to the mindset of expansion at all costs hasn’t been settled in over 20 years, and won’t be settled here today. But in the end, we can do better, we must do better, because now we know better.

And the words are true: Better IS Better…

To Plan for Prosperity

This week’s piece is purposefully pithy. It is meant to drive awareness of the “Costs and Effects™” of the decisions made in our businesses. Every choice we make has a consequence, and to truly “be better,” we must evaluate each business decision on its merit, not how it makes us feel.

While bigger can sometimes be better, it’s guaranteed that better is always better.