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Recession Readiness

Recession Readiness

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Recessions happen. In cyclical industries, the effect of a recession on a business’ results is magnified similar to how the benefits of a market boom are magnified. Industries that are less cyclical do not experience such swings in results and therefore appear to be more stable. These industries are less elastic (think about grocery stores, gas stations, natural gas companies) and are even considered “recession proof.”

If your business isn’t recession proof, here are a few tips to help you mitigate the effects of a recession and survive the downturn…maybe even thrive during it.

Bullet Proof Your Balance Sheet 

A strong balance sheet is your best weapon in fighting the effects of a recession. This also means keeping balance in the balance sheet, specifically top vs bottom, not just (left side and right side) assets vs liabilities. Top vs bottom means focusing on current assets and current liabilities (I.E. your working capital -the top half of the balance sheet), and not just accumulating assets and equity (the bottom half of the balance sheet.) Too often, I’ve seen businesses punish their working capital in a race to retire long term debt. While creating that equity by reducing debt is great, if it costs you your strength in working capital, it isn’t making your balance sheet bullet proof. Bullet proof is strong equity AND abundant working capital.

“Bullet proof your balance sheet during the good times, so you can catapult ahead of your competitors during the bad times.
If you get greedy during the good times, you’ll likely be on your knees in the bad times.”
– Moe Russell

Trim the Fat

Where in your business have things gotten a little complacent? Where is your business over-equipped? What can be identified in your business as “nice to have” instead of “need to have”?
When business is good it becomes easy to let things slide, to acquire equipment that helps things along but isn’t necessary overall, to treat oneself in ways that weren’t affordable before. It’s human nature, it happens, but it’s not sustainable in business that faces recession.

It is the business owner’s/manager’s obligation to scrutinize assets and processes for opportunities to get lean. And getting lean BEFORE the recession, before the business is forced to make reductions, is far easier than when the situation has become dire.

Is making a change to diet and exercise easier and more beneficial before a heart attack (I.E. prevention) or after (I.E. recovery)?

Be Responsive

We’ve all heard it before, and have probably said it a time or two ourselves: things will get better, they’ll turn around, just give it time.

Famous last words?

No one can accurately and consistently predict how long the market cycles will last. Many think they can, but they can’t. So if your business generates results that do not meet expectations, doing nothing about it is sure to repeat the same results. How long can your business not meet expectations during a recession? If we knew how long the recession would last, we could answer that question confidently, but we already acknowledged our inability to prognosticate market cycle duration. The solution then becomes, “do something about it.”

If revenue was below target, find out why.
If profit missed expectations, find out why.
If your best employees have resigned unexpectedly, find out why.
Waiting for divine intervention to “turn things around” is rarely a successful plan.

Plan for Prosperity

The advice above does not only apply to preparing for an economic or market recession; it applies to big picture planning in your business as well. Because it doesn’t take macroeconomic factors to have an impact on your business, putting these actions in play anytime will prepare you and your business for the unforeseen hazards that can throw your best laid plans into the ditch.

If you want to “Be Better™” is starts with “being ready.”

growth kills

Growth Kills

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We’ve all heard the anecdote “Speed Kills” as it was used to advise drivers to slow down. Former Canadian Football League (CFL) player Jason Armstead had “speed” and “kills” tattooed on the back of his left and right calf; as one of the fastest players in the league during his playing days, Armstead’s speed as a wide receiver and returner could kill the opposing team’s chances of winning.

But who has ever heard of “Growth Kills”?

I have written about it in this commentary and spoken about it at industry events: business can grow itself to death.

When a business pursues expansion at a pace that exceeds:

  1. Management’s ability to manage the growth,
  2. The business’ ability to finance the growth, or
  3. The market’s ability to consume the growth…

…we have an entity that has likely grown itself to bankruptcy, or the very brink of bankruptcy.

We’ve all seen it. A couple years of back to back successes, and owners feel invincible! The next thing you know, there is new equipment and buildings being added to the operation, fancy vacations being planned, and new personal expenditures (like houses, RV’s, and vehicles) being made like the lotto has just been won. Everyone who sees this opulence must surely believe that this business is very successful.

If owners (managers) are ill-equipped for the rapid success they’ve enjoyed, there is a likelihood that less-than-ideal decisions will be made in the future. As Marshall Goldsmith titled his bestselling book, What Got Your Here Won’t Get You There. Management has to keep up with the change that sustainable growth requires. This could include new knowledge/strategy/execution in areas like cash management, human resources, marketing, etc. Growth kills when management’s ability is stagnant in the face of growing complexity in business.

As sales grow, there is a need for more investment in the business (Eg. property/plant/equipment; labor; technology, etc.) to support the demand. That investment requires capital. Whether the capital is borrowed or sourced from within the business (usually taken out of working capital) has a major effect on the sustainability of the investment. Growth kills when, without a “home-run” or two, investment is pursued to the point that financing is maxed out and working capital is depleted.

What happens when more product is produced than the market can consume? A shift is made, and what once may have been a specialty item is now offered at a lower and lower price until supply has been consumed (see the “model year blowout” and virtually every car dealership every year.) A business that has enjoyed significant growth may decide to increase production based on past sales growth. Such a decision usually requires investment in the business (see the previous paragraph) and investment in inventory. Whether that inventory is raw material, or finished product remaining unsold, it is tying up working capital. How long can a business hold inventory before it converts that inventory to cash? If working capital is been reduced (see paragraph above) the answer is: not long.
Maybe the business is in a service industry. While there likely isn’t any inventory to have to manage, ramping up capacity (hiring & training staff, acquiring tools & equipment for staff, etc.) requires investment. These investments also carry an overhead expense (salaries & wages, utilities, depreciation, etc.) which becomes harder to pay for when market uptake is satiated. Growth kills when we assume the market will sustain our rapid growth for us.

Plan for Prosperity

What led to the recent success in business? Was it deliberate, planned, and executed…was it intentional growth? We recently discussed the ramifications of unintentional growth. Maybe this article should be titled (Unintentional) Growth Kills, but that probably would not have captured enough attention for you to even read it.

Growth Kills when the growth was unintentional and leads the ownership/management group to ignore the reality that (almost) all industries are cyclical. To say timing is everything does not give credit to important factors like strategy and execution, however an adequate strategy will give consideration to timing (to implement the growth strategy.)

It’s all connected. There is no magic bullet; one thing alone does not make success, and if it does, it’s “luck” and it’s short term because luck isn’t sustainable.

push pull

Push and Pull

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Push and pull.

Passive aggressive.

Proactive or reactive?

Okay, passive aggressive doesn’t REALLY apply…or does it?

A recent conversation with a banker had him using terms & phrases such as:

  • they have no idea what they owe, to whom, or what their payments are;
  • they leave out information in what they send to us;
  • after a year of battling over their lack of cash management, the bank is viewing their risk profile as ‘high.’
  • the promised to put together a plan months ago, but it seems there was always ‘something more important’ to do. Now that the bank is downgrading them, they’re in a hurry to get the plan in place.

The borrowers that this banker was speaking of have consistently displayed a behavior that is reactive. They:

  • only provide info to their lender when threatened;
  • do not follow the terms set out in their borrowing agreement;
  • only got serious about making a plan when the bank indicated that their credit risk profile was being downgraded.

Situations like this are, sadly, not uncommon. All too often, financial professionals see impending challenges and offer advice that is pertinent based on their experience. Whether the advice is heeded or ignored is out of our control.

What can be done? At risk of sounding like a broken record…

  1. Preserve cash by building strong working capital;
  2. Do not acquire capital assets with working capital…borrowing is still incredibly cheap!
  3. Drive down overhead costs so you can produce at the lowest Unit Cost of Production.

The challenge, of course, is now during a period of low commodity prices, how does one go about preserving cash to build working capital. A pessimist might say “that ship has sailed” with the end of the commodity boom. Notwithstanding any significant production issues somewhere on the globe, this may be true. And to bring it back around to the open of this commentary, proactive or reactive, it seems that by and large farms are reacting to the profitability challenges and positive cash flow challenges of the day. Proactive would have acknowledged that the good times were cyclical and would not last forever…

Plan for Prosperity

PUSH yields. In commodity production you need the bushels, but focus on optimum yield for profitability, not maximum yield for coffeeshop bragging rights!

PULL efficiency. You need to do more with less in low margin environments.

PUSH costs down. The lowest Unit Cost of Production (UnitCOP) wins. Period.

PULL management effectiveness to new heights. During times of questionable profitability, it is management that will rise to the top.

 

 

Contrast

Contrast

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Did you ever wonder how so much expansion is going on during what is supposedly challenging economic times?

In this part of the world, in fact in this part of Canada, we are experiencing economic growth that is far less than we’ve enjoyed over the last decade. Government spending has been reduced provincially, and the federal government deficit has grown exponentially; we were teased with drastic changes to our federal business income tax structure; we’re paying higher levels of consumption tax; unemployment has grown; overall confidence has declined.

And yet, we continue to see businesses growing, we see new construction in housing, commercial, and industrial levels, consumers continue to buy new cars and take vacations. On Boxing Day, my thermometer read -32 Celsius but there was a line up outside the doors of the Visions Electronics store prior to their 6am opening. How tough can these times really be?

Notwithstanding the socio-economic challenges that our society faces (none of which I am trying to discount here), behavior would indicate that the “tough times” aren’t as tough as we’re being led to believe.

Contrast the difference between 2 businesses in the same industry: both make widgets, both have sales forces, both face the same challenges of staying relevant in the sleepy industry of widget production.

Company A wants to corner the market and pursues a mission of expansion that leans hard on the idea that “bigger is better,” and expecting it to lead to greater efficiency, sales, and profits. Company A increases debt and increases cash flow spending on capital assets, technology, and marketing to fuel its expansion aspirations.

Company B recognizes the truth in the adage “Innovate or die.” While the widget production industry is sleepy, Company B knows that the status quo is not sustainable. Five years ago, Company B developed a 5 year plan to position itself to be an innovator in widget production. It carefully managed margins and cash flow so as to create a “war chest” of resources.

Which company is building a new production facility in 2018? Which company is at risk of losing not only its market share, but its best people,  to its competitor? Which company will blame the tough economic times for the decline of its business?

The best businesses, and it doesn’t matter which industry they are in, the best businesses plan. They plan for cycles, growth, innovation, and the unforeseen (like the 4 D’s: death, divorce, disability, disagreement.) Businesses that do not plan leave themselves at the mercy of the market, the fickle nature of consumerism, or “tough economic times.”

Plan for Prosperity

Planning, in and of itself, does not guarantee prosperity. Even execution of the best plan does not guarantee prosperity. But in contrast to your competitors who do not plan, who make decisions based on short term perspective and emotion, or who are happy just floating along, there is a clear and obvious line separating the grain from the chaff.

Which side of that line do you want to be on?

Cash Growth and Misplaced Priorities

Cash, Growth, and Misplaced Priority

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It’s been said many times by many pundits that “cash is king.” If you are a regular reader of my weekly commentary, you’ll know that I am not one who abides by that line of thinking because Cash Isn’t King. It’s the ACE!

However, GROWTH is King!

Growth is King and Cash is the Ace. What a tandem! It’s no wonder that in Texas Hold ‘Em poker, an Ace-King is known as “Big Slick.”

Recall that growth is not just about size and scale. Growth takes many forms; successful businesses “always grow, and grow all ways.”

The misplaced priority is when business pursues growth (expansion) at all costs, when it puts growth (expansion) above cash. I’ve seen businesses “grow” themselves to the brink of bankruptcy…

In an effort to spread out overhead costs, many businesses are driven to scale up. If rapid expansion is undertaken while in a weak financial position, the business has just been weakened further.

Cash is required to support any expansion plans. Expanding will not fix an insufficient cash position.

To Plan for Prosperity

Expansion plans must be carefully drawn up to ensure sufficient resources are available to support the goal. Expanding with insufficient resources, especially cash, can accelerate the decline of your business.

 

Per Acre Equipment Investment

Per Acre Equipment Calculation

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In the June 8, 2017 edition of the Western Producer, columnist Kevin Hursh penned Per acre equipment calculation can be revealing. As is typical, Hursh hits the nail on the head with this piece by suggesting farms should know their equipment investment per acre. His column goes on to describe how new equipment has seen significant increases in SRP (suggester retail price) over the last few years, contributing greatly to the elevating of the “per acre equipment calculation.”

First, let’s figure out where you are at. Add up the current value of all your equipment, owned and leased. If that total is $2.5million, and if your farm is 5,000 acres, your equipment investment per acre is $500. If we compare that to a 2,500 acre farm with $1million invested in equipment (therefore $400/ac), who is better off?

Measure it against earnings

Last year, I had a client tell me about a meeting with his lender. This particular client is small acreage, relatively speaking (under 1,000ac in crop) and yet was quite well equipped for his acres. He carried minimal debt, and despite some cash flow challenges over the previous two years, his working capital was still very strong. He was seeking a high-clearance sprayer so that he could ensure timely fungicide applications for his lentils, and other high value crops. The feedback he received from his lender was that his “equipment investment per acre was to high.” On the basis of that single calculation, it most certainly was. What the lender failed to evaluate was the entire farm profitability. Because of the small acre base, my client was able to produce a rotation of high-management high value crops. His net profit per acre was almost double a typical grain farm. His ability to justify a high equipment investment per acre was evident. Needless to say, he acquired his sprayer (a used model valued at just north of $100,000) pushing is equipment investment per acre from $484 to $644.

Let’s go back to the 2 fictional examples above.
EBITDA vs Per Acre Eq InvIf we only looked at equipment investment per acre, we would likely conclude that Farm B is in a better situation by only having $400/ac invested in equipment versus Farm A having $500/ac. Yet when we dig further by bringing EBITDA into the calculation (EBITDA is Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation & Amortization) we discover that Farm A generates stronger EBITDA per acre than Farm B, and is therefore possibly justified in having a higher investment per acre in equipment. In practical applications, even this doesn’t go far enough to determine which is better, but it’s a start.

To Plan for Prosperity

Delving into management calculations can be daunting and confusing. If we don’t know what to look for, how it compares, or even if we’re not measuring anything, we’re already behind before getting started. Begin by measuring the many facets of your business; in this case, “What is your equipment investment per acre?” How has is changed over the last five to ten years?

Relating back to my client, his EBITDA was a whisker under $120/ac, so his EBITDA to Equipment Investment on a per acre basis was about 0.186:1. This means that with his equipment investment of $644/ac will generate about $0.186/ac in EBITDA. Is that a good metric? As Kevin Hursh closed his column, “It’s unfortunate that more information isn’t available on the typical investment levels in each region. That would allow producers to make more relevant comparisons.”

Shaking Hands

Let’s Make a Deal

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Here is an incredible opportunity for you!

You can invest in a business that has grown its assets by 100% over the last 6 years. It has doubled its production and its staff compliment in that same time-frame. Revenues have increased by over 130% since 2005.

Interested?
No…why not? The description is accurate of many farms, maybe even one you know.

We’ve purposefully made no mention of liabilities or retained earnings, nary a word on profitability or cash flow. Sadly, it is because ignoring those is typical when expansion is allowed to be the critical success factor.

Investing in a business that has inconsistent profitability and little (if any) controls over cash flow is beyond risky. Is it any wonder that industry lenders demand detailed and accurate information before investing in your business?

To Plan for Prosperity

Do up a Debt to Net Worth calculation. If your figure is 1 to 1, that means your creditors have equal ownership as you in your business. If your Debt to Net Worth is greater than 1 to 1, your creditors have more skin in your game than you do.

If you wouldn’t invest in a business that cannot prove reliable profitability and consistent cash flow, why would anyone else?

 

Cycles

Cycles

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The weekly op-ed by Kevin Hursh in the Western Producer is a regular read for me. His recent column, Taking Risks OK, but prepare for the next downturn is another resounding piece clamoring for farmers to sit up and take note.

Bullet proof your balance sheet during the good times, so you can catapult ahead of your competitors during the bad times.
If you get greedy during the good times, you’ll likely be on your knees in the bad times.

-Moe Russell, Russell Consulting Group, Iowa USA

We’ve all seen enough charts and graphs over the years to be able to acknowledge and recognize the cycles of the past. Has anyone ever been able to consistently predict a cycle’s beginning, end, or severity? Certainly few, if any, in the energy sector could have predicted what they are going through right now…

Your business produces commodity, and in the commodity business you have no control over the cycles that affect it. Recognizing that cycles will always be present and will always affect your business is the first step. The next step is to prepare.

The future will always belong to those who see the possibilities before they become obvious.

-Danny Klinefelter, Honors Professor & Founder of TEPAP, Texas A&M University

Hursh writes, “While no one can predict the future, it’s probably naive to think that grain prices will always be this strong relative to production costs…it would seem equally naive to think that a world grain glut couldn’t cut grain prices by a third or even by half for a prolonged time period.
” If you follow ag-economic news from the US midwest, you’ll know that farmers there have been under significant pressure, land values are dropping, and lenders are reducing credit limits and tightening lending terms. I’ve asked on a number of occasions, “Who thinks this can’t happen here (in western Canada)?” (ref. Twitter)

Market cycles will hurt some, but offer opportunity to others.
The difference between who suffers and who prospers is…Who’s Ready.

– Kim Gerencser

To Plan for Prosperity

If adhering to the advice in any of the three quotes above, to “bullet proof your balance sheet” & “see the possibilities” in order to “be ready” for the next round of business cycles…well, you better get lean!

While LEAN is possibly best known as a system of techniques and activities for running a manufacturing or service operation, in the context here LEAN means “sans fat.” Trimming the fat from your operation is a primary step to solving cash flow challenges, increasing profitability, and reducing risk. Driving down your operating costs is key to consistent profitability in a time when yields, production quality, and markets are anything but consistent.

Next, reduce the impact of emotion on your business decisions. Two basic human emotions, fear and greed, often have the biggest impact on “why” and “when” bad decisions get made.

In closing, your pragmatic 3-step plan to prosperity during cycles in the commodity business are:

  1. Get lean;
  2. Eliminate “fear and greed” from impacting business decisions;
  3. “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest™”

 

farmfutures farm survival

Derived from Farm Futures “Survival Plan”

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This opinion piece was published on farmfutures.com on April 3, 2017. Titled What’s Your Farm’s Survival Plan, the author, Mike Wilson, describes how farm income in the US Mid-west is falling and thus challenging working capital to remain at adequate levels. As you have read here, and on my Twitter feed (if you follow me) is how borrowing  is becoming more difficult for US Mid-west farmers. I’ve posed the question several times is “Who thinks this can’t happen here” (in western Canada?)

Wilson lays out five practices that farmers can use to improve their chances of keeping a good relationship with their lender. Before discounting the suggestion by saying, “Yeah, well it’s different in Canada,” give it a read and appropriate consideration. Unless, or course, you believe it can’t happen here…

Snip Farm Futures Farm Survival The graphic is a screen capture of an excerpt of the article from the Farm Futures website. The text has been copied below, with my comments following each one:

What do lenders think when you walk through the door? If you do these five things, financing shouldn’t be much of an issue:

  1. Lenders will work with farmers who can communicate and execute a plan, whether it’s for marketing, cash flow, or both.
    *KG: we’ve discussed here many times over the years how important it is to communicate with your lenders who typically don’t like surprises. And while we’ve been preaching for years the value of planning, there is a key word in the statement above that, if ignored, makes planning the useless task so many farmers feel it is: execute.

2. Understand breakeven analysis and keep family living expenses low. Look for that extra dime in your marketing plan. Watch for opportunities to keep yields above average. A lot of that is just paying attention to details.
*KG: break-even analysis is one part of it. Utilizing Unit Cost of Production (UnitCOP) is critical not only to your break even analysis, but also your marketing strategy. It provides a built in sensitivity analysis to both prices and yields. It will clarify the importance of “that extra dime” in your marketing plan. It provides a level of detail that most farms still don’t employ in decision making…

3. Lenders need to know how you will pay them back. You can walk into their office, tell them about the 50 acres that just came up for sale next to your farm and expect to be approved — but that’s not how it works. They need to see that you’ve done your homework. They need to see your accurate balance sheet, income statement, accrual income adjustments, and other key financials. They need to see the numbers before they can pull the trigger.
*KG: Bankers make informed decisions; “they need to see the numbers before they can pull the trigger.” If the numbers are absent, it’s a hard stop. If the numbers are questionable, meaning that the credibility of the figures come into question, it’ll also be a hard stop. Several years ago, I witnessed a would-be borrowing get slammed by several quality bankers because the borrower provided sloppy info that was unverifiable. Lenders won’t make a decision to proceed without quality information; neither should you.

4. Be conservative with your money. “This will be a learning experience,” says Dan Gieseke, Missouri Farm Service Agency farm loan chief. “Many have not been through a tough time. They need to be conservative now, so they can be ready to take advantage of opportunities when they come along.”
*KG: The best time to be conservative with your money was 5 years ago. The next best time is right now. My old pal Moe Russell says, “If you are greedy in the good times, you’ll be on your knees in the bad times.” While shiny paint often feels better than a big bank balance, it is that bank balance (the life-blood of your business: working capital) that will not just help you survive the bad times, it will propel you through them; it’ll maybe even help you thrive during those bad times when your competitors are on their knees…

5. Use records to do analyses. “My fear is that farmers don’t use them,” says Purdue economist Freddie Barnard. “In the ’80s, we got beat up. But the tools to do the analyses then were not out there. There are tools now. Just use them, and try to make informed decisions.”
*KG: there are so many tools available, so much information available, that I would have a hard time arguing against someone who is admitting that “it’s overwhelming.” It is. While I would empathize, I wouldn’t accept that as an excuse. There are many qualified people in this industry who are ready, willing, and able to help you sort through the overwhelm, and establish a strategy to develop and implement a process to get you to a working level of comfort with data management, analysis, and decision making.

To Plan for Prosperity

“Do what you do best, and get help for the rest” is a cornerstone of my advisory work. If none of the five points above strike a chord with you because you don’t know how to do them, or don’t like doing what they suggest, then take a moment to ask yourself if the five points above are actually important to you.
If they are, but you’re not sure where to start, then start by picking up the phone and calling someone for help.
If they’re not, then good luck to you. You’re going to need it.

Your business, your family, and your legacy are too important to be left to chance.

CYFF

CYFF (Canadian Young Farmers’ Forum)

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Greetings from CYFF

The Canadian Young Farmers’ Forum brings together farmers from across Canada. This past weekend in Ottawa, they held their annual convention and invited me to speak as part of their agenda.

There were many takeaways from the event; here are a just a few, with my perspective following in brackets.

  1. Agriculture is incredibly diverse right here in Canada. (We shouldn’t just stay in our little echo chamber with others who produce the same as what we do.)
  2. Even with such diversity, young farmers face similar challenges across all sectors and across all provinces & regions:
    1. Building and protecting adequate working capital is difficult (I’ll keep preaching the importance of this;)
    2. Profitability is cyclical (we may have heard this before;)
    3. Competition is increasing for land, labor, etc (and they’re stressed out trying to figure out how to handle it;)
    4. Small farms struggle to compete with large scale & well capitalized operations (yes, there are large potato, berry, vegetable, dairy, poultry, & egg farms like there are large grain and cattle farms, and competing with them for land and labor is just as tough;)
    5. Young farmers feel lost when trying to determine if/how their parents ever plan to slow down/retire (this also applies to every other family business, not just farms.)
  3. The desire to learn more and be better is strong (learn, unlearn, relearn.)
  4. The desire to take part in something bigger, such as industry groups with lobby or policy influence, is significant.

CYFF is for farmers under 40. Based on the passion of these young farmers, and their desire to learn & be better at everything they do, I think the future of agriculture in Canada is in good hands.

To Plan for Prosperity

The issues you face, the challenges you struggle with on your farm are the same as almost countless other farms. The relief and comfort seen on the faces of these young farmers when that became evident was obvious. They felt less stressed and less alone when they realized that they are not the only ones feeling the angst, the despair, or the helplessness that dogs their personal situation at home.
Don’t sit alone and wallow in your own anguish over what challenges you in your business. Sharing your trials and tribulations will not only help mentor the passionate successors to our industry, it may help you find comfort in knowing “you’re not alone.” It might even turn up a solution.