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Innovation in Agriculture

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Innovation
Noun | in·no·va·tion | \ˌi-nə-ˈvā-shən\
: a new idea, device, or method
: the act or process of introducing new ideas, devices, or methods
(Source: http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/innovation)

No one could ever decry the innovation of Canadian agriculture. Often looked favorably upon for
consistently being on the leading edge, Canadian farmers are typically the envy of other nations’
producers for our advanced processes and our willingness to constantly strive for something better.
Innovation takes many forms. It need not be monumental. It does not require a farm to re-identify itself.
While significant innovations like direct seeding and minimum tillage required major capital
investments, many others do not. If you’re like virtually every farm, there is innovation all around you…if
you take the time to look.

Consider the changes you’ve made to your farm since you began farming. Again, not just the big obvious
changes, but the little things too. The little things often make the biggest difference, and yet they are so
easy to overlook. Just think about the positive effect of doing your own grain moisture tests on farm.
I was having a conversation with a client recently about the impact of grain sampling and how the
grading at delivery points can sometimes be a bone of contention. He described in detail how and why
he samples every load as it is being augered from the bin onto the truck. This is an innovation he has
employed to ensure he has taken appropriate measures to protect himself during a dispute. It has paid
off several times in the past, and will likely be of continued value in the future.

An interesting conversation, to which I was privy, among a group of very progressive farmers was about
how each of them managed the challenge of “feeding their help” during harvest. Crews that number
well into the teens require more than a cooler full of sandwiches and donuts. One innovation that I
thought was most creative was the customization of an old Class C motorhome into a quasi food-truck.
While we automatically focus on operations when considering our success with innovation, we cannot
ignore the management side of business. A common issue among my clients this fall is land rent
renewals. Many of them are seeking better ways to access their rented land without taking on so much
risk with these high cost all cash arrangements. As with land prices, rents have also increased
substantially over the last several years (thank you Captain Obvious for contributing to this week’s
article.) Farmers, generally, are becoming less comfortable with the $70-$100+/ac they’ve added to
their LBF (Land, Buildings, Finance) costs for land rent over the years and are now recognizing that they
often can’t make money on that rented land. Unless you’re running a charity, one that benefits your
landlords, “re-think profit” becomes an innovation all on its own.

Innovation is refining your record keeping, automating your payroll services, or focusing on improving
your working capital. While innovation also includes variable rate, advanced water management, or
specialized grain monitoring systems, it need not always be BIG and OBVIOUS. I think the best
innovation for every farm is to examine how it views profit, growth, and wealth.

Direct Questions

How do you view profit, growth, and wealth? I define each as,

Wealth: – discretionary time.

Profit: – that what is required to fuel “wealth.”

Growth: – not necessarily “expansion.” Growth is innovation at any and all levels.
(Remember “always grow; grow all ways!”)

How can you bring about innovation in your management arsenal?

How does innovation make its way into your business? Do you invite it in, or does it have to force its way
in?

From the Home Quarter

I am a firm believer that change will continue to be rapid and drastic in the future. In terms of record
keeping and data management, it will one day be mandatory, so why not get on board before you’re
forced? Regarding my client’s issue on his grain sampling, I believe that future farmers will be forced to
manage their inventory similar to that of a food processor today. And if you have not heard the term
“social license” yet, then let this be the first. A farmer’s social license to farm could face scrutiny like
we’ve never seen before. All of this will require significant innovation. But, don’t fret over the big issues
yet. Start small with manageable innovations today.

Our proprietary Farm Profit Improvement Program™ includes analysis and advice on negotiating land
rental agreements. Please call or email for further details.

GFP FI 2

Managed Risk – Part 5: Inaction

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While there could be many more “parts” to the list of topics that would fall under “Managed Risk,” I’ll
end it this week with one that I believe many people, maybe all people, face each day.
The list of reasons (excuses) we provide to support our decision not to act is virtually endless. They can
be found in the 7 Deadly Sins (pride, envy, sloth) or in almost any self-help book (communication issues,
inequality, stress) or even from psychological therapy (apathy, self-esteem issues, narcissism.)
Here are a few of the most monumental farm issues that are affected by inaction:

Business Structure

I recently took a call from a young man looking for guidance on how to manage the complexity of his
current farm arrangement. He farms with his dad and his brother; all three men have their own
corporation and their own land; one brother farms full time with the dad, the other is part time with offfarm
work. Tracking financial contributions and division of labor are a nightmare, and yet both look like
a cakewalk compared to managing “whose inventory is whose?” They are not happy with the increased
efforts needed to deal with these issues, they all know that there is likely a better way, but no one has
taken a step until the day I spoke with one of the brothers.

In this case, the inaction stems from unawareness: none of the men involved in this family farm had the
knowledge of what, if any, options were available, what questions to ask, or who to even ask for help.
It’s also common for inaction to stem from fear – fear of appearing incompetent by asking a “dumb
question,” fear of making the wrong decision, fear of rocking the boat and hurting the family dynamic.

Family Issues

Family issues challenge most intergenerational farms. There are many varieties, and most are worthy of
a book being written on the topic. Elaine Froese wrote Farming’s In-Law Factor. There should be books
written on “How to Fire Your Father” and “Decoding Motivation: How to Translate Boomers, Gen X’ers,
and Millennials.” If only…

The most common reason for inaction on family issues is “I don’t want to blow up the farm.” The
problem is that inaction can blow up the farm with greater odds than if action was taken! Unless the
family member you’re dealing with has truly sinister motivations, the likelihood of a successful dialogue
is quite positive. No one wants to destroy the farm or the family, so with the appropriate approach,
success can be had. The inaction for family issues predominantly stems from fear. Coaching is available
to help families deal with these types of issues.

Transition

Considering the average age of a Canadian prairie farmer today, the volume of farm transitions to take
place over the next 10 years is staggering. The cumulative value of assets that will change ownership
would dwarf the GDP of some small nations. With so much at stake, why does every farm not have a
succession plan already in place (or at least in progress?)
Inaction on this front increases the risk of the following:

  • Future family fighting
  • Colossal tax obligations
  • Destroy the farm business
  • Your legacy lost

Excuses (reasons) for inaction here are unacceptable. It is nothing short of reckless and irresponsible to
leave undone a function with such enormous impact. There is no shame in not having all the answers, or
any answers for that matter. Farm transition is a process, not a result. The process becomes a path of
discovery, but if you insist on keeping your blinders on, don’t be surprised to one day deal with any or all
of the 4 bullet points above.

Direct Questions

What is your main reason for inaction? “No Time” is an excuse. “Fear” is a real reason, but only you can
conquer it.

What have your accountant and lawyer provided you for advice regarding your future transfer (sale) of
assets?

In a family business, inaction increases the probability of irreparable family dysfunction. What is getting
higher priority: family harmony or fear of perceived conflict?

From the Home Quarter

What must happen to make an issue a priority? Is it an immediate tangible loss/damage, like an
equipment breakdown in season? Is it emotional goal, like a new pickup truck? Is it perceived (assumed)
risk, like assuming your employee will quit unless he’s granted a wage increase?

Making an issue a priority is the best way to beat the risk of inaction. The fear of the perceived
outcomes or the fear of not knowing how to proceed gives us permission to keep urgent issues down
low on the priority list. But at what point does reality and rational reasoning take over so that we
recognize that the risk of inaction has more negative potential than that of any perceived outcome?
In retrospect, “inaction” is not so much a managed risk, but an unmanaged risk. Managing our
“inaction” actually reduces, or even eliminates, the risk.

If you struggle with inaction…
For a no charge consultation on where you are best to replace “fear” with “priority,” please call or email
me anytime.

life

Managed Risk – Part 3: Credit

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You’ve read how I am a fan of Seth Godin’s daily blog. His entry on Thursday September 17 was titled
Serving Size. He writes about how it is “our instinct to fill the bowl” with “bowl” being a metaphor that
could apply to anything and everything from our homes to our egos. For now, let’s consider the “bowl”
to be thought of as “debt.”

If you’re like most farm businesses, you’ve been getting a bigger debt bowl over the last 5-7 years. In
fact, I would bet that if you looked back at your statements from 2005, you would wonder how you even
managed to operate with such little debt (relative to what you’re carrying today.) This is not unique, and
considering western Canadian agriculture (especially grains) has been in a boom for the last 7 years or
so, it is of little surprise that debt levels have also increased.

The question then begs, “How big can the bowls get?”

Lenders love to see strong cash flow and increasing equity. Record cash receipts and appreciating land
values have bolstered lenders’ appetite to lend into agriculture. With money being as cheap as it is (low
interest rates,) farms’ debt bowls have been easy to grow.

What’s been filling all those bowls? Primarily it has been rapidly appreciating land and an insatiable
thirst for more and newer equipment. You’ve read here in the past that there is a distinct difference
between “good debt” and “bad debt.” I challenge everyone to evaluate what is in their “bowls” and
identify the “bad debt.” What percentage of your total debt could be considered “bad?”

Generally speaking, bad debt is the unnecessary debt. Often poorly structured, it eats up cash flow like a
game of Hungry-Hungry Hippos chomps marbles, and it uses up the finite space in your bowl. Yes, there
will come a time when a bigger bowl cannot be had, and it is then that many will wish they had managed
their credit a little closer.

We talked about interest rates in last week’s article, and it spawned more reader feedback than I’ve
received in a while (I’ll credit that to harvest being a greater focus than commenting back to me.) Gerry
Bourgeois, Scotiabank’s Director of Agriculture Banking for Saskatchewan & Manitoba, offered an
interesting strategy in his reader feedback: “With interest rates at an all-time low, farmers with a lot of
debt on their balance sheet should be taking advantage of these current rates to consider locking in 5, 7,
or even 10 year money.” Acknowledging that rates are still going to go up, even if it will be later than
many had expected, Bourgeois says, “I view the current low rates as a compressed spring. Once they
start moving up, they will move up quickly.” He goes on to suggest “locking in rates and using derivatives
to hedge interest rate risk” as a sound strategy many farms could consider.

“Similar to how a farmer would use commodity derivatives in a trading account to hedge his commodity
pricing, we use financial derivatives to hedge interest rates on larger transactions,” Bourgeois says.
Using what are called Banker’s Acceptances, he describes how a “swap” works as a hedge against rate
increases, and alternatively can even goes so far as to structure a “cap” on potential future interest rate
increases, functioning like interest rate increase insurance. “Utilizing these market instruments can
provide greater flexibility in your hedges down the road,” he concludes.

To put more emphasis on managing your credit, here are some focal points to get you started:

  1. Understand how your lender views your business. Are you seen as risky? Are you considered
    highly leveraged? (IE. Can you get a bigger bowl, and if not, is it right full?)
  2. Recognize how your cash flow matches up with your debt obligations? More specifically can you
    meet your debt obligations should your cash flow decrease?
  3. Eliminate bad debt, and keep it out of your operation. Just because you can afford the payments
    today doesn’t mean you should buy, and it certainly doesn’t mean you can afford the payments
    next year either.
  4. Look back at the worst year you’ve had profit wise in the last 10 years. How much debt could
    you service if that was your profit for the next 3 years? Let this be your guide.
  5. If your bowl is full, what is your strategy in case of an emergency (Eg. tractor needs an engine)
    or an opportunity (Eg. prime land unexpectedly hits the market)

Direct Questions

What are you doing to protect yourself from market changes? (Eg. interest rate moves, lender’s
adjustment to credit policy, etc.)

How can you strengthen your overall debt structure?

What happens if your lender instructs you to use a smaller bowl?

From the Home Quarter

Every business needs access to credit to facilitate growth. It is the reckless depletion of many farms’
credit capacity that will further heighten a potential cash flow crisis stemming from shrinking gross
margins. While we cannot change the decisions of the past, we can learn from them. And there is no
time like the present to take steps to improve your debt situation if it’s not currently ideal. There is no
time like the present to strengthen your credit structure to protect what you’ve built considering the
current lending environment.

There are many circumstances where it is a smart decision to get a bigger bowl, but it is often smartest
to know when the bowl is big enough, or even when to get a smaller one

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Managed Risk Part 2 – Interest Rates

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In a conversation recently with a young farmer, who I feel is a poster boy for excellent business
management, he disclosed that he’s far more concerned with rising interest rates than low commodity
prices. During our brief exchange on this topic, I stuck with my position that interest rates, if they move
up at all, will see modest increases because when we consider the volume of credit currently
outstanding, the effect (desired or not) of any increases would be dramatically slower spending and
investment. Currently, I see no reason domestically to raise interest rates. His position involved a
number of macroeconomic factors including China, the US, and the EU. Admittedly, I’m less fluent in
how China’s recession will affect the Bank of Canada’s prime rate or how it will trickle down to Canadian
agriculture, specifically primary producers, but no doubt there is an impact to consider.

Just because the Bank of Canada may not be raising its prime rate does not mean that lenders won’t
raise theirs. The Bank of Canada prime and the chartered bank’s prime are related, but not directly
connected. The Bank of Canada makes its decisions on economic factors. Lenders make their decisions
based on business factors and their expectation of a profit. Lenders most likely recognize that increasing
rates now would be harmful, but again they have profit expectations and dividends to pay.

Is your business the same? Do you have a profit expectation and dividends to pay to shareholders?
It was encouraged in Growing Farm Profits Weekly #11 on March 17, 2015 for everyone to do an
interest rate sensitivity calculation. I would enjoy hearing from readers who did an interest rate
sensitivity to understand what they learned from the exercise. For those of you who didn’t do one, here
are some points to ponder:

  • Interest costs on term credits are controllable only at the time you sign documents, or at
    renewal.
  • History shows that over the long term, floating interest rates are cheaper than fixed rates.
  • While enjoying the consistency that fixed rates offer, consider the ramifications of renewing all
    your fixed rates at the same time. Having no control over, nor any idea of, what future interest
    rates will be, what is your strategy to manage this risk?
    HINT: it’s something you climb, but it isn’t a tree. Call or email if you want to explore further.
  • The interest rate you pay to your lender is a direct representation of 2 factors:
    • The cost incurred by the lender to acquire the funds being lent to you, and
    • Your lender’s view of how risky your particular business is. IE: you might pay more or less interest
      than your neighbor if the lender views your farm as being more or less risky than your neighbor’s farm.
      (This is the significance of knowing what’s important to your lender!)
  • Competition for business is the 3rd factor affecting your interest rate – and it goes both ways.

At the end of the day, your control is over how much you borrow, and for what purpose. Bad debt is
unhealthy enough, but interest on bad debt is worse. Your interest strategy needs a blend of fixed and
floating rates, varying terms, and payment dates that align with your cash flow.

Direct Questions

Consider the pros and cons for each of “blended payments” and “fixed principal plus interest
payments.” Which payment structure best fits your needs?

When doing an interest rate sensitivity test, do the results scare your socks off?

What is your strategy for managing loan interest?

From the Home Quarter

The great equalizer across all farms is Mother Nature. What isn’t equal is how each farm manages risk.
Those who are averse to any debt often miss out on growth opportunities. Those who have a flippant
approach to debt often find themselves painted into a corner. It is a strategic and measured approach to
managing risk that sets apart the players in the game.

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Managed Risk Part 1: Harvest Sales

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In an email last week, a farmer friend and former colleague of mine admitted to having 100% of his 2015 crop sold before harvest. It is the first time this has ever happened on his farm. From my years working in ag finance and farm management consulting, I can confidently say that virtually all farms are not 100% sold on new crop in advance of harvest.

As with anything, there are benefits and drawbacks to being 100% sold early in the crop season. It’s easy to identify the drawbacks: production risk (broken into yield risk and quality risk), opportunity risk (if the market appreciates after you’re sold), etc. etc. We’re not going to dwell on these because it’s safe to say almost every farmer has already spent more than enough time hashing and rehashing all the reasons why they shouldn’t sell too early. There are far more drawbacks that have been touted over the years (real, perceived, or otherwise) than I care to scribe. You’ll notice I didn’t put weather risk on the list; it is because we cannot influence or control weather. Why stress over that which you cannot control?

How about some of the benefits:

  • Reduced delivery risk
  • Eliminated market risk
  • Reduced storage risk
  • Controlled cash flow risk

When admitting his crop was 100% sold already, my friend and I didn’t get into the details of what was in place so that he felt comfortable making such a decision. He did acknowledge that prior to harvest the prices were too good to pass up. While price is an important factor, price alone is not sufficient to pull this trigger. Here’s more on what you need if you want to be a more aggressive price maker, instead of a passive price taker.

  1. Excellent relationship with your buyers.
    When it comes to dealing with quality and grading, delivery times, or anything in between, a solid relationship with the buyer of your grain is crucial. Try using a sense of entitlement when next dealing with your buyers and see how far you get. This one is obvious; we won’t dedicate any more space describing what you already know.
  2. Know your costs, especially Unit Cost of Production. As one of my favorite young farmers likes to say, “You can’t go broke by selling for a profit.” Such true words require that you know what it cost to produce a bushel or a tonne so that the price you accept is actually profitable. This isn’t an easy task before harvest, but those farms that have elevated management functions can clearly illustrate UnitCOP with allowances for deviation in expected yield or quality. Refer back to point #1 when dealing with those deviations.
  3. Abundant Working Capital.
    Any drawback, real or perceived, to selling most of your crop ahead of harvest is mitigated by having abundant working capital.
    The biggest selling benefit from having abundant working capital is being able to sell when you WANT to instead of when you HAVE to. The ability to sell on your own timeline affords you the opportunity to deliver in your preferred month, and to seek out your preferred price. Abundant working capital also alleviates the fear of costs incurred from not meeting contract requirements when aggressively forward selling. The hesitation felt from the potential of having to “buy out” a contract if specs aren’t met can be eliminated if working capital is abundant.

It is not unreasonable to see more reluctance this year among durum growers to forward price as aggressively as in the past. The fusarium fiasco of 2014 hurt numerous farms financially and created an air of hesitation. But if working capital was a non-issue on every farm, durum growers would not be shy to forward price after the 2014 experience. While none want to set themselves up for unnecessary cost incurrence, the ability to handle the potential cost alleviates the concern of incurring it.

Direct Questions

How would you rate your relationship with your grain buyers? What can be done to improve it?
How would you describe your knowledge of your Unit Cost of Production, and net profit margin?
What is your current level of working capital and what does it need to be to provide you with full confidence to aggressively forward price?

From the Home Quarter

Please let it be clear that this message is not encouraging everyone to sell 100% of new crop production ahead of harvest. Such a strategy takes on risks that not every farm can mitigate. But if you are desirous in forward pricing more new crop than you have in past years, then let this message offer you some tips on what you need to have in place to make that happen.
You may have noticed that working capital is a central theme to many messages delivered here weekly. If you are able to focus on only one priority, let it be working capital.
Our proprietary Farm Profit Improvement Program™ begins with working capital evaluations and True Cost of Production analysis. Please call or email to learn how this process can bring value to your farm.

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Knowing Your Costs – Part 3: “The Present vs The Future”

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As a proud member of the Rider Nation, and loyal fan of the entire CFL (despite the goofy new rules for
2015,) I witnessed something happen on the weekend that blew up social media and has fans of the
Green & White frothing.

The struggling winless Riders have been devastated by injury and lack-luster performances on field,
especially defensively. The order of the game plan each week seems to be “who can we plug where?”
One of the criticisms from fans is that there has been inadequate planning on behalf of management to
bring in the right new talent to provide appropriate solutions at time of crisis (like injury.)

While the business of football is a mystery to me, the business of business is not. Like a football team,
your business will face crises and you’ll need to adjust quickly. It doesn’t have to be personnel related
(like a football team;) it could be asset related (like equipment catastrophe) or market related (like a
major price decline) or anything. The knee-jerk reactions that are commonplace during times of crisis
rarely bode well for outcomes.

In the case of my favorite football team, the knee jerk reactions have been to sign different players to
the roster regularly. This is meant to fill the gaps left by injury, unsatisfactory performance, etc. This
knee-jerk reaction creates an air of constant uncertainty among the remaining players, and rarely brings
instant results because new players need time to learn the system, and gel with their teammates so as
to function as a unit when on the field. Wouldn’t it be better to have developed some younger players
and keep them on a practice roster? Players who would have learned the system since training camp,
and who are just itching to get on the field and show their stuff?

Similar to your business when you face crises, you could follow the lead of this football team and simply
run to the marketplace to buy another combine, rent more land, hire more people, apply more spray,
etc. The knee-jerk reaction would feel good in the short term because of the band-aid effect, but what
about the future? How has the knee-jerk decision affected your future profitability? Will the lease or
finance cost of that combine be affordable for the next 2-5 years? Will the extra land grow anything, or
will it be flooded out or ravaged with disease? Will your new hire fit in with your existing team and
culture? Will that extra spray increase or decrease your profit? Wouldn’t it be better to have given these
potential crises some consideration before the season started with some planning? With planning, you
would be prepared and then make a timely and informed decision. No more knee-jerk reactions.

The biggest issue with my favorite football team came to light during the last game this past Sunday. The
head coach pulled a young quarterback from the game after he threw an interception. The young QB,
who is 23 years old and fresh out of college, started the season as 3rd in line yet found himself in the #1
slot for the last number of games because of injury. By all accounts, this young man has the skills to be
the future leader of this team…in several years, not now. He needs time to learn, to enhance his skills
and his knowledge. The best way to enhance those skills is with real life experience. On Sunday, the
head coach regressed that young man’s growth by killing his confidence when he got benched for one
mistake. The coach made a knee-jerk decision that can, and likely will, have a detrimental effect on the
future of the team.

While the future of this football team weighs heavy on the fans enthusiasm right now, your business
doesn’t have to be this way. Whether it be a crisis in personnel, equipment, weather, or markets, the
preparation and planning you put in ahead of time will save you time, anxiety, and money.
How does this relate to knowing your costs? It comes from planning. Knowing your critical crisis cost
points from investing time and effort in your management will clearly indicate where you have
sensitivities and where you have breathing room. The sensitive areas, where your return on investment
is tight, require more strategy analysis to better prepare for crisis.

Critical Crisis Cost Points

Personnel

o Key person quits mid-season (do you have a successor on the team today?)
o Injury, serious or minor (do you have a documented safety plan, insurance coverage?)

Equipment

o Does your current equipment cost per acre have room for an increase should there be
an equipment crisis?
o Is your current equipment line deficient or excessive based on your productivity,
efficiency, and cost expectations?

Weather

o Are you prepared for hail or frost, drought or flood? (i.e. do you have sufficient working
capital to handle the loss of gross margin?)

Markets

o Do you know your Unit Cost of Production so you can hedge for a profit?

Direct Questions

What have you done to prepare for crisis on your farm? Will you be making a prepared and informed
decision or a knee-jerk reaction?

What are you doing to understand your costs on your critical cost points to accelerate your ability to
make informed decisions during times of crisis?

From the Home Quarter

The planning that goes into putting together a successful football season resembles the planning it takes
to put together a successful growing season on your farm. You put together the best game plan you can
based on the assets at your disposal, tangible or intangible. You prepare for quandary by building depth
into your game plan for your critical crisis cost points. Sometimes you best plans aren’t enough;
sometimes the dilemma is greater than you could predict or the results are more damaging than you
could imagine. No matter how you slice it, your best bet is planning and being prepared by drawing the
distinction between risking your future on a quick decision in the present, or taking the charted path
keeping the long term success of your business always in mind.

The head coach of the Riders got fired before I could finish writing this article. I expect it was partly
because he refused to take any accountability for the team’s struggles. He routinely made decisions in
the present with a lack of regard for his, or his team’s, future. He arrogantly stated in interviews that
he’s a great coach and will find work if he’s let go. His unwillingness to look within himself as the leader
ultimately cost him his job. As the leader of your farm, please don’t get caught in that same syndrome.
Your future depends on it.

farm2

Prevention or Contingency?

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I read Alan Weiss regularly and one of his daily blog entries from early July gave me inspiration for this
week’s article.

Alan consults to Fortune 500 Companies and solo practitioners alike, and in the entry I refer to he asks
readers, “What are you doing with your clients, helping them to fight fires or to prevent them?”
Currently, I’m doing as much fire-fighting as I am fire prevention. I enjoy the latter far more, and I know
clients do to.

The challenge is that it is hard work to build and implement a prevention plan. It’s more fun to “give’r
while the going’s good” and figure out the rest later. For many farms, later has arrived and now it’s time
to fight fire.

The prevention plan will consider 3 metrics that must be maintained:

1. Working Capital
2. Debt to Equity
3. Cash Flow

graph15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Working Capital is simply the difference between your Current Assets and your Current Liabilities. To
complicate things, there is a process on how to include accurate figures for each; it’s not hard, but it
takes work. If your working capital is negative with little opportunity to return to positive, seek help
immediately.

Debt to Equity, usually represented as Debt:Equity or D:E, is a ratio of your total liabilities to your
equity. For realistic measurements, calculate your net worth for the equity figure. Net worth is fair
market value (FMV) of all “owned” assets less all liabilities. The difference is your net worth. If your
debts are $2million and your net worth is $1million, your D:E = 2:1. In some industries, a D:E of 2:1 is
acceptable; in agriculture, it is considered too high. Target your D:E at 1:1 or less.

Cash Flow is going to be the new-old buzz word. As it was the dominant focus of the 1990’s and early
2000’s, cash flow will once again be front and center. Total up you cash flow requirements for the year
and don’t leave anything out (like living expenses.) When compared to what expected gross production
revenues are going to be this year, are you happy with the result?

Direct Questions

Can you recognize and describe the importance of adequate working capital?

Debt to Equity is a measurement of “what you owe versus what you own.” Are you happy with how your
metric balances out?

Cash makes loan payments, equity does not. Are your financing obligations using up the cash you need
to pay bills, cover living expenses, or build adequate working capital?

From the Home Quarter

Your prevention plan needs to have these three metrics measured, tested, and measured again.
Strategies for how to manage your finite resources so as to build and maintain a prevention plan are
easier than fighting fires or trying to put together an emergency contingency plan when you first see
smoke. You might have excellent fire-fighting skills, and your contingency plan could be water tight, but
the fire still occurred. Isn’t it better to prevent what caused the fire then to fight it?

If you’d like help building your farm’s prevention plan, then call me or send an email.

GFP FI 2

The Drought Dilemma

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The smoky haze we started inhaling yesterday drives home more than ever just how dry it really is.
#Drought15 is the Twitter hashtag to learn about how bad it is beyond our respective back doors. By all
accounts, crops are suffering and market prices are starting to reflect it. Those who are in an area that
has been, and/or remains, too wet just might be coyly denying that they ever complained about the
rain.

While it is too early to get a handle on any semblance of accurate yield estimates, people I’ve been
talking with have tossed around phrases such as “July harvest” on lentils, and described wheat crops
that are ready to push heads despite only being approximately 2 feet tall. What might be in those heads
if another hot dry windy week prevails?

As a farmer, you are an optimist. Even the most pessimistic ornery old codger you can imagine is still an
optimist if he’s a farmer. If he wasn’t, he’d never put a crop in the ground each spring. But as optimistic
as “Well, if we get one good rain in the next 4-5 days” sounds, it’s not going to make it rain. Despite the
drizzle we’re seeing today, one rain does not make a crop. If you’ve got payments to make, payables to
cover, even payroll to meet, you might want to start thinking about how that will all get done if
#Drought15 persists.

  1. Speak with your creditors.
    They’re not clueless; they hear the weather forecasts and read the crop reports. But they also
    won’t assume; they won’t assume that you’ll have trouble making payments because your crop
    is not going to meet expectations. As far as they’re concerned, you’ll be fully capable of
    satisfying the obligations you promised to make when you signed the loan or lease
    documents…unless they hear otherwise.
    And remember, your lenders are not problem fixers, so coming to them after the trouble gets
    real makes it far more difficult. They have more opportunity to help when they can be proactive.
  2. Consider your options.
    Do you remember Growing Farm Profits Weekly Issue #9? “Life and business can often be like
    snowmobiling: when trouble is ahead sometimes you need to pull back and sometimes you
    need to stay on the throttle.” What is your best option considering your crop’s development to
    date? I recently read an article discussing the possibility of reseeding barley on fields that have
    been froze out or droughted out. Considering the dire need for feed this year, cattlemen will be
    interested in green feed or silage barley. Is it time to consider how that might pencil out?
  3. Change your plans.
    The decisions you made last year and the year before were based on the best information you
    had at the time. The current situation differs greatly and probably requires a new decision.
    Swallowing pride and allowing yourself to change/reverse/discard old decisions could be exactly
    what your business needs. Nay, it IS what your business needs because your business is
    constantly changing and so should your decisions. Knowing when to do so is just as important.

Direct Questions

How would you rate yourself as far as being agile to your financial obligations in light of poor crop
conditions?

How would your stress level decrease if you took 10% of the time and effort you spend on worrying
about the existing crop conditions and used it to contact your strategic partners and advisors to amend
2015 expectations?

Are you staunchly sticking to your past decisions or are you being flexible and responsive to the needs of
your business?

From the Home Quarter

About 17 or 18 months ago, I blogged about how we need to reset what our expectation of success
really is. After the record 2013 crop, the 2014 crop year was poised to be a real disappointment in
comparison. Considering so far this year we generally went from adequate or excessive moisture in
March to a drought by mid-May, I’d suggest we look at 2015 for what it is and be realistic about what
we can call success. To give you a glimpse of what I mean, in 2014 I was working with a farm that
projected an operating loss due to the excessive moisture, crop quality issues, dropping grain prices, and
high fixed costs. The comment during planning was “OK, so we’re expecting to lose only about $300,000
in 2014; that’s decent considering what it could be.” They reset their expectation of success based on
what they saw.

Take a good hard look at your current year, be realistic with expectations, and make changes as
required. We can help make sense of it, take the emotion out of it, and assist with establishing new
plans.

If you’d like help planning your farm for business and personal success, then call me or send an email.

emotion

Emotional Decisions: Business’ Achilles Heel

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I bought a used truck last week. Since I am no longer actively farming, I decided that my beautiful ¾ ton
diesel was more truck than I needed. It took me 2 years of searching to find that truck, so some people
are astounded that I would be selling it. It was still a terrific truck, and had nothing wrong with it.

During my search for another truck, I learned bits of info here & there about the good, bad, and
otherwise regarding the models I was interested in. It’s always a challenge to sort through the noise of
those who are die-hard loyalists who cannot see anything adverse about their brand and of those who
are inherently negative and cannot find anything good to say. How does a person decide?

I wanted the replacement truck to be in the 2011-2013 range. I faced the same challenge we all face
when considering a major purchase: can I find what I want within my price range, do I accept less than
what I want to stay within my price range, or do I pay more than I planned to get what I want? In the
modern age of “instant gratification,” our society typically pays more than planned.

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While some options on my list were important, others weren’t. When considering the Ford F150, I was
firmly on the fence over engine options: 5.0L or EcoBoost? As mentioned earlier, there is a lot of noise
about these engine options. I found a consistent message between 2 salesmen and felt that was the
most honest feedback I have come across. When describing what I need out of this truck, and why I was
on the fence, one salesman replied, “Well you’re just taking the emotion right out of this decision, aren’t
you?”

Yes. Yes I am.

The fundamentals of what makes a good decision are often clouded by emotion. We get so caught up in
the “want” that we blow right past the “need.” And since we as a society will typically pay more than
planned to get what we want, it creates a perfect storm. This storm has eroded balance sheet equity for
many, and left others upside-down on vehicle & equipment loans, but always negatively impacts cash
flow.

Direct Questions

How often have you let emotion take over your decision making process?

Do you avoid making a business case for each decision because it will prove the emotional argument to
be the wrong one?

What impact are you feeling from past emotional decisions?

From the Home Quarter

Removing emotion from business decisions is a key benefit that my clients enjoy. It allows my clients to
experience greater confidence in their decisions by having me filter through their emotions. I am not on
your farm each day, so the emotion of why you’re making the decision is not felt by me, thus allowing
me to see through it and keep you on track.

The truck I sold was rare because of its features and options. It had incredibly low kilometers for its age,
and needed nothing (I’d been through it front to back over the last 2 years.) What I felt for this vehicle
was almost on the verge of love (although I have never “loved” or “named” any of my vehicles, ever.)
And while it held a special place with me, it’s a truck, a tool, an inanimate object and completely
replaceable. I sold it when I did because I knew I could get maximum value for it now. A year from now
would be significantly less. It was advertised on Friday afternoon, it was sold by Saturday, and picked up
Monday. I found the truck I wanted the Thursday before, and picked it up a week later. I took the
emotion out of the equation.

Allowing emotion to influence your decision making is like putting on blinders: all that can be seen is
what you “think” you need and no other options appear available. Let’s take the blinders off, remove
emotion from the equation, and see if we can make a business case that offers an appropriate ROI.

If you’d like help removing emotion from the decisions you make for business and personal success,
then call me or send an email.

blindside

The Blindside

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No not the Hollywood movie, but the way prairie farmers have been blindsided by these late spring
frosts.

I haven’t done the research, but it’s fair to say that we’d be hard pressed to recall a year when we’ve
had such a string of days where the daily low temperatures are well below freezing. Word has it that
farmers in many areas now are beginning to prepare for reseeding.

Show of hands: how many built reseeding into their 2015 crop plan? I didn’t think so. How many of you
who are reseeding are rejigging your budget and projections? It better be all of you.

It’s not just the extra cost of seed, fuel, wages, etc. It also means later emergence and maturity which
will impact yield, and maybe quality. For how challenging it has been to deliver grain in the last few
years, if late maturity means you now cannot deliver off the combine in August or September as per
your contract, will you be forced to wait until December, or even March? Have you considered how this
could impact cash flow?

Don’t get lulled into oversimplifying the adjustments to your projections. It’s easy to just add in cost for
more seed. But a couple bucks an acre here for labor, and a couple more bucks there for fuel on the
extra pass add up. And I don’t know of too many 2015 projections that have much wiggle room.

Direct Questions

Have you provided realistic amendments to yield and price projections based on reseeding dates and
rates.

Have you considered how the later seeding dates due to reseeding will affect your new crop delivery
opportunities, and therefore, your cash flow?

Do you have sufficient working capital to get through this unplanned extra cost?

From the Home Quarter

Anyone who is dealing with Mother Nature’s blindside string of frosty nights will be significantly
impacted in all 3 critical areas of their farm: production, marketing, and financial management.
Consequentially, the other critical areas of your business will also be affected: family, wealth, and
potentially your health.

You must, at your very first chance, update your projections for 2015 with realistic and conservative
information. And for goodness sake, let your lenders know ASAP, not just next spring when you’re doing
your annual review.

This bolsters my argument for strong working capital. Every farm, your farm, is at risk of a blindside
attack at any time from a variety of sources. Adequate working capital is the best way to ensure you’ll
get through it.
If you’d like help establishing strategies to ensure you build adequate working capital,
then call me or send an email.