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Cycles

Cycles

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The weekly op-ed by Kevin Hursh in the Western Producer is a regular read for me. His recent column, Taking Risks OK, but prepare for the next downturn is another resounding piece clamoring for farmers to sit up and take note.

Bullet proof your balance sheet during the good times, so you can catapult ahead of your competitors during the bad times.
If you get greedy during the good times, you’ll likely be on your knees in the bad times.

-Moe Russell, Russell Consulting Group, Iowa USA

We’ve all seen enough charts and graphs over the years to be able to acknowledge and recognize the cycles of the past. Has anyone ever been able to consistently predict a cycle’s beginning, end, or severity? Certainly few, if any, in the energy sector could have predicted what they are going through right now…

Your business produces commodity, and in the commodity business you have no control over the cycles that affect it. Recognizing that cycles will always be present and will always affect your business is the first step. The next step is to prepare.

The future will always belong to those who see the possibilities before they become obvious.

-Danny Klinefelter, Honors Professor & Founder of TEPAP, Texas A&M University

Hursh writes, “While no one can predict the future, it’s probably naive to think that grain prices will always be this strong relative to production costs…it would seem equally naive to think that a world grain glut couldn’t cut grain prices by a third or even by half for a prolonged time period.
” If you follow ag-economic news from the US midwest, you’ll know that farmers there have been under significant pressure, land values are dropping, and lenders are reducing credit limits and tightening lending terms. I’ve asked on a number of occasions, “Who thinks this can’t happen here (in western Canada)?” (ref. Twitter)

Market cycles will hurt some, but offer opportunity to others.
The difference between who suffers and who prospers is…Who’s Ready.

– Kim Gerencser

To Plan for Prosperity

If adhering to the advice in any of the three quotes above, to “bullet proof your balance sheet” & “see the possibilities” in order to “be ready” for the next round of business cycles…well, you better get lean!

While LEAN is possibly best known as a system of techniques and activities for running a manufacturing or service operation, in the context here LEAN means “sans fat.” Trimming the fat from your operation is a primary step to solving cash flow challenges, increasing profitability, and reducing risk. Driving down your operating costs is key to consistent profitability in a time when yields, production quality, and markets are anything but consistent.

Next, reduce the impact of emotion on your business decisions. Two basic human emotions, fear and greed, often have the biggest impact on “why” and “when” bad decisions get made.

In closing, your pragmatic 3-step plan to prosperity during cycles in the commodity business are:

  1. Get lean;
  2. Eliminate “fear and greed” from impacting business decisions;
  3. “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest™”

 

MISmanagement

Operational MISmanagement

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I recently had an experience on my least favorite Canadian airline which was so bizarre that laughter was all I could do in the moment.

The original plan was as follows:

  • 5:50pm Chicago to Toronto;
  • 2.5 hour layover at Pearson, relax, eat, maybe get some work done;
  • 10:55pm Toronto to Regina.

While waiting to board the 5:50pm flight, watching time tick on and on, and even though our plane was at the gate and empty, there was still no one boarding the aircraft at 5:50pm. Yet, the information screen at the gate insisted that our flight was “on time.”  I snapped this picture and tweeted it.Operational MISmanagement

At 5:55pm, an announcement was made: due to runway construction at Toronto airport, our departure from Chicago was being delayed until 9pm. We were instructed to go relax, find something to eat, and come back to the same gate at 8pm. (If you’re keeping track, that is a three hour delay which would have us landing in Toronto at 11pm…5 minutes after my flight home was to leave Toronto for Regina. Clearly, I’m not going to make my connection.)

After to speaking face to face with an airline “customer service agent” (you can infer that the quotes are meant to imply sarcasm) I was informed that there were no other flights on other airlines that might get me to Toronto to make my connection. When asked who would be picking up the cost of my hotel room in Toronto since it was clear my connection would be missed, the response was “We (the airline) don’t do that. But I can give you a food voucher for here (Chicago O’Hare), just be back by 8pm to board this flight.” He hands me a $15 voucher, which was about enough to buy a bottle of water and a piece of gum in O’Hare…

As I begin to circle around to find somewhere to eat, I find myself walking right past my gate, and see a line of people boarding the plane!! The information screen at the gate now says the flight will leave at 6:50pm (If you’re keeping track that is 1hr delayed from the original schedule, but a full 2hrs ahead of what was we were told 15 min earlier.) So I board the plane.

Despite the posted 6:50pm departure time, an announcement from the flight deck is made at 7:15pm: “We’re just waiting on a few passengers and then we’ll push back from the gate. Due to runway construction at Toronto Pearson, we will be unable to reach our gate in Toronto upon arrival. So we’re going to push back and sit on the tarmac in Chicago for 1 hour; we can sit on the tarmac here or in Toronto, it really doesn’t matter. So you know, it’ll be about 1hr from push back to liftoff.” I still can’t understand why we needed to board just to sit in the aircraft when we could have remained in the terminal and actually had something to eat…

Finally we have inched our way to the runway. Wheels up at 8:10pm. One hour flight to Toronto, plus the time change, and we touch down at 10:10pm. Because it’s Toronto, there is 15 minutes of taxiing; we’re at the gate at 10:25. I have 30min to clear customs, clear security, and make my connection home. Now if only the 22 rows in front of me on the flight had been courteous enough to let those of us with a connection off the plane first… To their credit, the airline did request that other passengers without a connection remain seated. No one complied.

long lineMy legs still ache from being at a dead run, with luggage and wearing a suit coat, for what seemed like a mile despite likely only being half that. My Nexus card allowed me to bypass the 308 people in line at customs (I was at a dead run, no I didn’t stop to count them) and thankfully at 11pm, there was no line at security. I am grateful to my fellow passenger coming from Chicago, just as late as I, trying to catch his connection to Montreal. He new where to go to get to our concourse (his departure gate was 2 down from mine.) I would have been lost had I not been following him.

They closed the doors to the jet bridge as I ran up to my departure gate. Through gasped breath, I explained in 2 sentences why I was late (regretfully, I may have used a few expletives.) The gate agent was without a doubt the best person I’d been in contact with from this airline on this day. She let me through, I boarded, and got home as planned.

 

To Plan for Prosperity

Operational MISmanagement costs airlines millions of dollars and immeasurable goodwill. Just have a look at United Airlines’ woes over time… Here are my questions relative to my experience described above:

  1. Runway construction at Pearson did not start unannounced on that day. The airline would have known about it for a long time. Why would we only be notified AT the time of original departure (5:50pm)?
  2. How can a 3 hour delay turn into a 1 hour delay in 15 minutes?
  3. Why rush to board only to sit on the tarmac for an hour before liftoff?
  4. People actually missed that flight, and in my mind it was because the airline told them to come back to board at 8pm but was now leaving the gate by 7:20pm. Part of the delay pushing back from the gate was because their luggage was being removed from the plane. I can’t even formulate a question for this, it is so asinine!!
  5. I was likely to miss my connection due to no fault of mine, yet the airline wouldn’t offer to pay for my hotel. How much do they value their passengers?

M-I-S is capitalized because if refers to your Management Information System. Your Management Information Systems, whether you’ve formally addressed them or not, are put to the test as you approach spring seeding. Tracking inventories (seed, fertilizer, fuel, parts, etc.), people (who is operating what & where), and cash (keeping vendors paid, moving grain as required) are all part of your M.I.S. Lose control of one piece of your M.I.S. and see how things are affected.
What are the impacts of seeding too soon, seeding too late, missing a pesticide application window, running out of fuel, or running out of capital…?

You have a system to get your crop seeded, to get it harvested, to manage all aspects of your business in between. It keeps your business running without a glitch, or in the case of a hiccup it provides adjustments to get back on track.

If Air Canada has any sort of “system,” it’s not working. I’m not sure how they stay in business. They could benefit from a good business advisor…

iconic backstop

Backstop

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What’s your backstop?

Recently, I read an article from some economist on interest rates. The premise was that interest rates have to rise in the short term, even though the economic signals aren’t yet supportive of an interest rate increase. The rationale: if the economy hits another pothole, and rates have remained at their historic lows, then there is little in the way of monetary policy options available to kick-start the economy. In other words, if rates stay low and the Bank of Canada (or the US Federal Reserve for that matter) needs to reduce rates to stimulate spending, how can they reduce rates that have no more room to go down? Do we toy with the idea of negative interest rates? It appears we have no backstop.

The challenge now is how to prepare for a potential future trouble spot when there is presently no wiggle room. To increase rates now will all but guarantee that our fragile economy will stumble. By not raising rates now leaves no room to reduce rates in the future (if needed) and all but guarantees that a potential trouble spot will be far more than a spot, it would be a huge stain. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I do not envy Governor Stephan Poloz’s job at all…

Does it seem as though there was too much confidence from policymakers, thinking like it can’t happen to me? Some might say that the policymakers didn’t want to to what it took to prevent fire and now may have to fight fire.

This thinking can also apply to child rearing. Kids who typically get what they want, especially after whining, usually fall into tantrums when parents offer a firm “No.” Without laying a baseline for what is acceptable and tolerable behavior from their children, tantrums ensue. In other words, the parents have left themselves with no backstop.

An effective backstop for your business can apply to many different facets: personnel, equipment, agronomic, risk management, etc. From the financial perspective, your backstop should be made up of several key pieces:

  1. Working Capital (especially cash)
    Strong working capital solves many problems, and prevents even more. It reduces cash flow risk, takes significant pressure off of market risk, and best of all it creates growth opportunities.
  2. Equity (and its relation to debt)
    If your business is weak in working capital and strong in equity, these low interest rates offer the best opportunity to recapitalize your farm. On the other hand, I smiled at a comment made by a client late in 2016 when he was postulating how fun and profitable farming would be without burdensome debt obligation weighing (him) down and pressuring (his) cash flow.
  3. Management Strength and Discipline
    Too often I’ve seen farm businesses that were strong in working capital and equity whittle away at their backstop to satisfy their expansion desires. Strength and discipline is required to not get caught up in the euphoria of more and more assets. It is also required for the business to keep growing (not just in size and scale;) large cash holdings and significant equity can sometimes be a sign of poorly allocated capital. Strength and discipline refers to avoiding both (opposite) extremes, and staying on task and on point with your strategic business plan.

Ideally, your financial backstop is a balance of all 3 points above. Too much, or too little, of any one point will be far less effective as a functioning backstop.

To Plan for Prosperity

Knowing your risks and actively managing them is the key step to understanding how much of a backstop you need. Under-emphasizing your risks or over-emphasizing your backstop both have potential to be detrimental to your business’ health.

Super Bowl Management Quality

Super Bowl Management Quality

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They should have seen it coming.

Didn’t some pundit declare something like a 99.9% chance of a Falcons victory with about 8 minutes left in the game? Somebody please clarify if that was actually the case.

A rather pompous thought that I kept to myself while watching Super Bowl LI, after Atlanta took a 28-3 lead, was “Brady’s just smiling at the bigger point differential that he’ll get to cover on his way to a win.” In hindsight, that comment would have been brilliant…had I actually said it.

They should have seen it coming.

Yes, it is easy to prognosticate in hindsight, but that’s not the point here. What did it take, what did the New England Patriots do to win another championship, aside from setting 24 new Super Bowl records and tying 7 others?

  1. People
    Bill Belichick has been the head coach of the New England Patriots for 17 seasons. He is in the top 5 winningest coaches in NFL history.
    Tom Brady has virtually cemented his place as the NFL’s greatest quarterback of all time. Based on the last 17 years of performance, he was a steal in the 2000 NFL draft, going in the 6th round (199th)
    The rest of the team contains very few “superstars,” yet when their superstar QB was suspended for 4 games to start this season, the team went 3-1.
  2. Management
    This starts at the top with vision. In the five seasons before Robert Kraft bought the franchise in 1994, the team was 19-61 (a .238 winning percentage). In 1994, the team made the playoffs, and did so 4 of the first 5 years under Kraft’s ownership.
    Management’s plan clearly put great emphasis on people. Since Kraft took ownership, the team has only had 3 head coaches, with Belichick, the current head coach, being in place for 17 of 24 seasons of Kraft ownership. The team is part of a privately owned family enterprise.
  3. System
    What words could you come up with to describe the system that has propelled, and maintained, team success for so many years, including the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history? Many had felt that the game was over at half-time: no team has ever come back to win the Super Bowl from more than 10 points down, Atlanta was dominating both sides of the ball (offence and defense,) and New England was making mistakes (turnovers, dropped passes, missed kicks.) Yet, the Patriots found a way to win. They had a system, and stuck to it, never giving up, never quitting. It would have been easy to deviate from their system in the face of such adversity; it would have been easy to lose motivation under what was deemed to be an insurmountable deficit.

The New England Patriots are by all accounts a highly successful business. How does your business compare? Can you reach top decile?
People: do you have the right people in the right place? It does not matter if they are family members or not, evaluate everyone, even yourself.
Management: does your management team have a vision and a strategy to achieve results that would put you in the top 10% of comparable businesses?
System: have you developed systems that are proven to work year in and year out, providing you with dependable efficiency and results? Or is every year a new roll of the dice?

Management has a vision, they put the right people in place, and everyone executes the system.

To Plan for Prosperity

Set yourself up for success. Model your business, and your approach to business, after other successful enterprises. We may not be New England Patriots fans because we envy their consistent competitiveness and success, similar to how we may not be oozing with adoration for the most successful farms in our area, but doesn’t that make them a great model to follow?

For the record, I’m not a Patriots fan, I am (at best) a casual NFL fan. I was actually hoping Atlanta would win Super Bowl LI (for no specific reason,) but I’m not disappointed with the outcome; it makes for some great storylines and it forces everyone to admit some admiration for an enterprise with the success rate of the New England Patriots.

Your 2017 Plan

Your 2017 Plan

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If it’s not done yet, you’re already behind.

They say to be a successful chess player, one must always be thinking 3 or more moves ahead, each with one or more alternatives on how your opponent will respond. The same can be said for business. Successful business owners are already thinking about 2020 and 2023, with a big picture vision of 2027 (that’s three, five, and ten years out.) They know that the decisions made today will affect their circumstances not only next year, but beyond.

This is a difficult focus to maintain when trying to get through the day to day challenges while under fire. Weather, break-downs, employee or family bickering can all make your days’s best plans worthless is a blink. And when days roll into weeks, weeks into months, and months into years, it is easy to not have the time (or not take the time?) to plan because we’re just trying to survive the daily onslaught, and maybe find time for an evening or weekend off…possibly even a short holiday in summer.

The most common objection to planning that I’ve heard over the years goes something like this: “Things change so much and so often that any plan is worthless in a month, or less!” That is an example of the mindset that I won’t work with (I’ve just given a hint at how I vet any prospective business engagement.)

A plan is not a binding document; it is more like a road map that you’ve built yourself.

Like a map:

  • your preferred path to your destination is clear;
  • your options, should you need to detour from your preferred path, are laid out;
  • what lies beyond your destination is illustrated for your consideration.

Unlike a map:

  • you’re not taking someone else’s word for what lies ahead because you build your own route.
  • you have the power to create your own alternative options, not just accept what is already there;
  • you can rewrite your plan if it isn’t working well; good luck trying to rewrite a map.

Understand that the total package of planning for your business is actually 4 parts: Strategic (what), Tactical (how), Operational (execution), and Financial (results & growth). Don’t let this scare you! To form a habit of planning, one does not need to complete all 4 tiers. Start with what you know (for most farmers, that is “operations.”) While you likely have your entire operations requirements in your head, putting it on paper and sharing with your team is highly likely to reduce inefficiencies and frustration this spring.

To Plan for Prosperity

Choose your destination (goals.)
Set your course (strategy.)
Decide who is driving, who is support, etc. Provide your team with the training and resources they need to do their job (tactical.)
Execute, but have preparations in place for the unexpected (operational.)
Be informed on how each alternative action will affect your results and growth potential (financial.)

There’s truth in the old saying, “If you don’t know where you’re going, how will you know when you get there?”

change

Critical State – Unwilling to Change or Adapt

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As we prepare to close out 2016, let’s look at change. No, not the coins in your pocket; no, not swapping your attire.

We change

  • when we see value (Eg. switching to minimum tillage practices.)
  • when we are forced (Eg. a health scare.)
  • when the pain of staying the same is greater than the pain of changing (this is hard to quantify because there is comfort in the familiarity, not matter how painful.)

change-venn

Value:
Change to achieve value is easy. We see benefit to doing something different, and we implement change. Although, this is incredibly difficult to define, and can be as diverse as each individual person’s opinion of “value.”

Forced:
Sometimes we get feedback from our doctor, or our banker, that is bleak, stark, or harsh. If we do not change X, we are certain to face Y. If Y is scary, unimaginable, or intolerable, the change to X is usually made pretty quick.

Pain:
Pain is subjective. And it has been found that pain tolerance can be surprisingly high if it means avoiding change.

Look back at 2016, and few years prior to that as well, and consider what drove the change(s) you made:
PAIN isn’t what drove you to acquire a new pickup. Neither was it FORCED. So what was the VALUE?
Was there FORCE or VALUE that led to a plan to improve working capital?
Was it VALUE or PAIN that led to having hired help on the farm?

Determining the factors that brought about the change(s) you are evaluating is a worthy, albeit difficult, exercise. Once we understand what it is that motivates us to change, not generally but specifically, we can use that understanding, that knowledge, to make better decisions.

Direct Questions

What is the most common theme for the changes you’ve made in your life and in your business: value, force, or pain?

Significant changes are easier to evaluate. How do you determine what leads to small changes: value, force, or pain?

How has the fear of change cost you, personally, financially, or otherwise?

From the Home Quarter

Charles Darwin is often credited for saying, “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”
Danny Klinefelter is quoted as saying, “The future will always belong to those who see the possibilities before they become obvious.”
Kim Gerencser is quoted as saying,”(Business) cycles will hurt some, but offer opportunity for others. The difference between who suffers and who prospers is who’s ready.”

Change, like 2017, is coming whether you’re ready for it or not. Buckle up!

2016 year end review

Reviewing 2016

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We often get so focused on process that we fail to stop to take a look back now and again. If you feel like you’ll never reach your goal of <fill in the blank>, take some time for review to see how far you’ve actually come.

Where were things one year ago? If you were like most, you were highly optimistic about the potential of 2016. While durum was still troubled by fusarium, there was tremendous, widespread excitement to climb abroad the lentil train! After an usually warm and dry winter, from one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded, the concerns of a potential late and wet start to seeding were quickly cast aside.

The way 2015 started out (with multiple late spring frosts) you might have been cautiously optimistic about the 2016 crop, even though it looked like it was setting up for a repeat of the 2013 record yield. Diligent pesticide applications meant to protect this potential boomer of a crop may have worked well, unless we’re talking about chickpeas and durum. The rain didn’t allow for the desired warm dry autumn, and the 2016 harvest literally became a marathon. While I haven’t done any calculations, I’d be placing my money on an approximate 70-75 day average harvest duration in 2016.

Yields were all over the map, and this has again kept many income statements looking tight. There were far too many discouraging sides to crop rotations everywhere, and many of those farmers who tore up their long term crop plans to chase big returns are feeling a little sore. Fertilizer prices dropped in the summer and stayed low most of the fall, allowing those farms that have strong working capital to buy their 2016 fertilizer cheaper than they have in recent memory. Saskatchewan reelected its government; Manitoba voted in a new one. And we found ourselves gobsmacked by goings on leading up to the US election.

And so, in looking back over 2016 we want to focus on progress, innovations, shortcomings, and of course, lessons learned over the last 12 months.

Direct Questions

What progress did you make on your long term goals? Short term goals?

What innovations did you employ this year?

How have you evaluated results to determine their success or failure?

From the Home Quarter

There was a pointed competitive advantage described in the article above; did you pick it out? In a business that produces commodities, you need to create every advantage possible to give your business the best opportunity for sustained profitability.

Where did your business fall short of expectations in 2016? Where did it exceed? What did you learn from it, and what will you do different?

Does this sound familiar? I wrote something very similar a year ago. One year later, it still applies.

My First Tractor

Why Tractors are Sexier than Spreadsheets

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Blame Kenny Chesney. He didn’t sing “She thinks my spreadsheet’s sexy.” Across all genres, I’d bet there is no one immortalizing accountants, bankers, and financial analysts in song.

Chesney’s 1999 release, She Thinks My Tractor’s Sexy is one of my favorites. At a time when farming didn’t get much attention and wasn’t garnering a lot of respect, it was a feel good jam that pumped me up every time I heard it. Seventeen years later, it still does.

Please realize that my opening statement above is tongue-in-cheek. I do not hold Kenny Chesney accountable for why tractors are sexier than spreadsheets. But the question still begs, why are spreadsheets unpopular when compared to tractors? Both are tools with specific uses. Both tools are effective, highly powerful, and multi-functioning. Both can create efficiency that is almost immeasurable.

Business owners can hire someone to run either tool, the tractor or the spreadsheet. If you were to follow one of the cornerstones of my advice, “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest,” then you’ve already likely hired someone to drive the tractor, right?

A long tenured ag professional, who will remain nameless, recently during a conversation with me describing one of his frustrating client experiences quipped,”If driving tractors is more important than running the business, we’re very near the end.” We laughed at the absurdity of the words, yet were stymied by their truth.

In a meeting with a client recently, we were discussing their growing ability to gather data from their operations. They shared the question posed by their equipment specialist “What are you going to do with all this data?” I instantly shot back,”Just collect it; we’ll figure out how to use it.” The goal is to make data collection a natural part of business activity, a habit, not a challenging task on the ever growing “To Do List.”

What we will do with that data, collected in part by/from the tractor, is more than likely import it to a spreadsheet. In that spreadsheet, we will be able to delve into the figures, sort them into a usable format, and ultimately make decisions that are more informed than ever before.

Direct Questions

Does running the tractor take priority over running the spreadsheet? Why?

If you’re not running your spreadsheet, who is? Does this pose a risk in your mind?

Do you make equipment purchase decisions without consulting the spreadsheet?

From the Home Quarter

Informed decisions lead to higher profitability. Higher profitability has a way of reducing risk. Reducing risk increases confidence.

Since spreadsheets make for informed decisions which ultimately increases confidence, and since confidence is sexy, doesn’t that make spreadsheets sexy?

Back to you Mr. Chesney…

 

 

agex-conf

Musings from the AgEx (Agricultural Excellence) Conference

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For those of you who are regular readers of this commentary, you know full well how I feel about farm shows in general and what it takes to draw crowds. Every major farm show on the prairies is so heavily focused on production, when we are already some of the best, if not THE best producers, in the world. Where we are lacking (generally speaking) is on the management and financial side of the business.

That is why I am such a fan of the Agricultural Excellence (AgEx) Conference. It is 2+ days dedicated exclusively to management. No presentations on crops, weeds, fertilizers or equipment; although, had there been, we would likely have seen 4-5 times the number of attendees. Overheard during networking at AgEx:”Want to get 1,000 farmers in the room? Show them some new equipment, give them a hat and a hotdog…that’s how!” If that rhetoric has more than a grain of truth, it sustains my railing on on the problem we have in the industry.

The title of this year’s AgEx was “Plan and Prosper: Set the Course for Farm Success.” This isn’t a typical preach from the podium event; the format included live debate, panel discussions, bear-pit sessions, and a choice of six concurrent workshops. If you couldn’t attend in person, it was broadcast via webinar.

Here are some of the very high level points made at the conference:

  • As a producer, you sell into a global community. Understand how that affects you (and that means deeper than simple “supply and demand.”)
  • If you expect to remain relevant in an ever changing industry, you must face change with confidence not fight it with vengeance.
  • There is still a large gap to bridge between the generations who farm together.
  • There is a TON of great information, resources, and advice available to you as a producer. All you have to do is ask!

There is much work to do, both on your part as producers and business owners, but also on our part as advisors:

  • We (as an industry) need to collectively come to agreement on how to calculate major financial metrics, such as gross margin.
  • We (as advisors) need to create synergies with all of our clients’ other advisors so as to better service each client.
  • We (as advisors) must elevate and consistently deliver the message that success is defined by management…period.
  • We (as an industry) must support each other to provide a unified front against those who would rather we fail.

From the Home Quarter

It is not difficult to find yourself pumped up and motivated when leaving an event like AgEx. The quality of information and networking available is second to none. I rubbed shoulders with a National Director from one of the largest ag accounting firms in Canada, an international farm advisor, a former diplomat, among others…oh, and I now also have a tour guide on PEI in the form of a young potato farmer!

Excellence is within all of us if we choose to focus on it. If we let fear hold us back, our results will show it (and we shouldn’t be surprised.)

As I will continue to say, “Do what you do best, and get help for the rest.”

Over-Optimism (a.k.a “It Can’t Happen to Me”)

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Recently I’ve sensed great concern from some bankers regarding the effects on the cattle market because of this TB outbreak in Alberta. The effects are still not definitive but could prove devastating.
The fallout from this recent harvest in western Canada is still being measured. Creditors are in full disaster preparation mode so as not to be bombarded by voluminous delinquent payments over the next 5-6 months.

A valuable part of the work I do is to help clients make capital expenditure and credit decisions. After a number of difficult crop years from excess moisture, many farms have great concern over their financial stability and fully recognize that they have very little room for error. Pains are being taken to consider how every decision could affect the farm’s future profitability.

Many long term business decisions have been made on the premise of $12 canola and $8 wheat, or $2/lb weaned calves (as a kid, I sold my first calf for $0.80/lb.) Servicing debt on land and/or equipment payments during the high points of the cycle is easy, but as we’ve seen, the debt often outlives the business cycle.

Some farmers, especially those who are relatively new to farming, have never experienced tough financial times. They have no first hand experience of BSE or the 2004 frost; they know little outside of high yields, good quality and strong grain & cattle markets. Sadly, there are many who have first hand experience of those dramatic market influences yet have permitted themselves to have short memories.

I remember giving a presentation in 2013, in a community I won’t name so that I don’t shame them, where the audience was verbally angry with me for stating that we were a “global average crop, not a bumper crop but an average crop globally from $9 canola and $4 wheat.” They thought I was crazy because, in their opinion, canola had a new floor price and it was $12.

Regularly I am forwarded an article from some US agency (it varies week to week depending on who is forwarding it to me) that provides insight into the rapidly decreasing appetite for risk into grain farming from US lenders, or the sizable decline in land rent rates, and the reduction in land values. I often tweet these articles with the question, “Does anyone think this can’t happen here?”

I am encouraged by a shifting focus among farmers that centers more on ROI (Return On Investment) and less on size & scale. It bodes well with a saying (it’s not mine) that I like to lean on: Better is better before bigger is better.

Direct Questions

How do you view risk and its potential to affect business results when making business decisions?

Have you considered how a major market shock could affect your profitability, and if so, what have you done?

If your profitability will be sub-par in 2016, what adjustments are you planning to make for 2017 and onward?

From the Home Quarter

While no one can deny that “things are different now,” there is still much we can learn from history. Maybe the most important lesson from history is that major business-impacting events are very unpredictable. As such, maybe we should be more prepared for the predictable events so that the unpredictable ones aren’t such a major shock…